As Trump Gambles on Iran, Putin and Xi Play a New Great Game

On May 1, a shipment of South African apples cleared customs in Shenzhen and became the first African goods to enter China under its massively expanded zero-tariff policy for the continent. The policy-a vast, unilateral duty-free zone in an era when globalization is on the retreat-covers 53 African countries. The missing 54th is Eswatini, population about 1.2 million, because it is the only African country that still recognizes Taiwan.

Apples are not usually how empires announce themselves. But this fruit arrived with a twist. China's message was obvious: Recognize Beijing, gain access; recognize Taipei, have access restricted. The Taiwan Strait is somewhat broader than the map indicates.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has been consumed by Iran. This week he called off a planned attack after Gulf allies urged more time for "serious negotiations," while warning that a renewed assault could still happen "on a moment's notice.” Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the same day that further U.S. or Israeli attacks could take the war "beyond the region."

Iran’s threat, given how degraded it is militarily, may be bluster. But Trump is still engulfed in the Iran issue while America’s rivals continue to make moves elsewhere.

Common Knowledge

The right has sometimes warned about events in Africa. Senator Roger Wicker, the Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said last week that Africa "is not a distant concern for American national security" but "an arena of growing strategic consequence," shaped by China, Russia, terrorism and weak governance. He accused China of using "economic coercion, debt diplomacy, and military basing," while Russia uses "mercenaries and other proxies."

Such warnings don’t appear to have gained much traction in Washington. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described the new U.S. aid model as "trade over aid, opportunity over dependency, and investment over assistance," but China's tariff move means it has already got there first.

On the left, critics warn that China and Russia’s involvement in Africa is not a model. It wants America to resist the urge to repeat mistakes of the colonial past, not least as African nations are not mere pawns. Brookings' Landry Signé has said that Washington should answer Chinese and Russian interference with "mutually beneficial sectors and partnerships," not a "wholesale retraction of engagement."

Uncommon Knowledge

Political commentators often talk about the importance of “influence.” China and Russia don’t merely want influence in Africa. They want things that can be dug, shipped, refined and sold. China uses diplomacy and economic pressure and Russia runs a protection racket.

China-Africa trade hit a record $348 billion in 2025, with Chinese exports to Africa at $225 billion and imports from Africa at $123 billion. The scale is significant. Africa's population is about 1.5 billion and is projected by the United Nations to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, meaning the continent is driving global demographic growth just as China's population ages. African workers and domestic robots are Chinese hedges against its own demographic time bomb.

China is looking for specific resources. For example, the Democratic Republic of Congo accounted for an estimated 73 percent of global cobalt mine production in 2025, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Cobalt is used in rechargeable batteries, among other technology. China now owns or finances many of the country’s biggest cobalt mines. It refines the cobalt itself, then undercuts global rivals in sectors such as electric vehicles.

By contrast, while the U.S. imported 14,000 tons of cobalt in 2025, much of it came from Norway, Finland, Canada and Japan, and it mined only 300 tons domestically.

Chinese companies are also involved in about one-third of Africa's 231 commercial ports. Djibouti's Doraleh Port was extended to accommodate China's first known overseas military base in 2017.

General Dagvin Anderson, commander of U.S. Africa Command, has told Congress that China is expanding from economic influence into military and information operations, and that Chinese investment in ports is concerning because such ports could deny U.S. forces access during conflict. Meanwhile, there is a growing U.S. intelligence gap. Axios reported that a $94 million request for African intelligence activities was funded at only $19 million, and that the latest National Defense Strategy mentions "Africa" only twice.

African countries also matter at the United Nations, mainly because the continent has so many members. African votes were decisive in the 1971 U.N. General Assembly debate that allowed the entry of the People's Republic of China and expelled Taiwan.

Russia's Africa strategy is smaller and blunter. The Kremlin has earned more than $2.5 billion from African gold since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to the Blood Gold Report summarized by the Africa Center, using operations linked to Wagner and its successor structures in Mali, Sudan and the Central African Republic.

It also wants arms markets. Russia was Africa's largest supplier of major arms in 2020-24, accounting for 21 percent of African imports, followed by China at 18 percent and the United States at 16 percent.

Russia wants a coastline as well, including pursuing a Red Sea naval base in Sudan, close to a maritime route that runs through the Suez Canal.

Trump may well be right to worry about Iran. The Middle East has been the graveyard of presidencies, not to mention one source of terror across the world. Its nuclear ambitions were a serious concern. But that is not the only game in town. Africa is rapidly becoming part of that game, but America is abandoning the board.

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This story was originally published May 21, 2026 at 5:00 AM.