Venezuela’s president without a palace hits a milestone amid doubts

On Jan. 23, Venezuela’s Juan Guaidó electrified the country when he declared himself president of the struggling South American country in defiance of the man in the Miraflores Presidential Palace, Nicolás Maduro.

Speaking before a massive crowd, he laid out a three-part plan that became a national mantra: Drive Maduro out of office, lead a transitional government and hold new elections.

But six months after taking that oath, the Guaidó administration has been stuck on the first step. And Maduro, 57, seems no closer to relinquishing power.

“When he started talking about ending [Maduro’s] usurpation of the presidency on Jan. 23, he said it with such a sense of immediacy,” recalls Juan Carlos Viloria, the head of the Coalition for Venezuela, a network of advocacy groups. “People were so hopeful that it could happen quickly — now we know these things take time.”

But for Guaidó time may be running out.

Despite having the backing of Washington and more than 50 other nations, his claim to the presidency is linked to his role as head of congress. But since 2015 the opposition-led legislature has been rotating its leadership every December. And that means that Guaidó may have less than five months left as the country’s parallel president.

Undoubtedly, Washington and others will push for congress to ratify Guaidó for another term. But his Voluntad Popular party will also be under pressure to stick to the power-sharing agreement and give another political party the chance to lead at this critical juncture.

Will that mean that Venezuela will have a second interim president trying to wrest control from Maduro come December? At this point it’s not clear.

“There’s so much uncertainty,” Viloria said. “We’ve got Christ in one hand and a rosary in the other, as they say here, because we have no idea what will happen in [five] months. Maybe Juan Guaidó is ratified, maybe he’s not.”

During those first heady days of Guaidó’s administration, a year in office seemed like more than enough time to bring about change. Guaidó was leading massive national marches and the global community was rallying around him. But things started to go south.

In February, his attempts to push international aid across the borders from Brazil and Colombia were blocked and devolved into bloodshed. Then, in April, he called for a military uprising that never truly materialized.

As it became clear that Washington wasn’t going to send in troops and that Guaidó didn’t have enough muscle to oust Maduro, the rival factions have tiptoed into negotiations in Barbados under the auspices of the Norwegian government. While those talks are shrouded in secrecy, there are expectations that they might result in early presidential elections.

Even as the vast majority of Venezuelans want Maduro gone, the talks are seen with a deep sense of suspicion by many, said Ruben Chirino Leañez with Meganalisis, a Caracas-based polling firm.

Chirino said he fears the regime will use the talks as a stalling tactic that will continue to sap Guaidó of his momentum, and that could increase the likelihood that the young politician faces a leadership challenge in December.

He also doesn’t believe Maduro intends to give up power.

“Past talks have never produced concrete results,” he said. “This feels like deja vu. ... And personally, I don’t think it’s going to end in new elections.”

It’s clear that Washington is running out of options. The Trump administration has been ratcheting up painful economic sanctions and has also targeted dozens of Maduro’s allies, but Maduro has hung on.

Now the White House and the international community in general are simply weary of Venezuela’s political stalemate, said Antonio de la Cruz, the executive director of Inter American Trends, a D.C.-based political consultancy group.

“They’re tired of a situation that never resolves itself, so there’s a growing international consensus in favor of pressuring all sides to find an electoral solution,” he said.

But he acknowledges that the risks for Guaidó are particularly high, since Guaidó has been promising his followers that Maduro will be ousted before any new elections will take place.

“He’s boxed in by his own discourse about ending the usurpation,” de la Cruz said. And every day that goes by without him resolving that basic issue, “the political costs for him will increase.”

Chirino, with Meganalisis, said the sense that Guaidó is losing momentum is palpable on the streets of Venezuela. His demonstrations, once massive and widespread, are now largely confined to opposition strongholds. (Guaidó has called for a new national march on Tuesday.) And his continued promises that Maduro is weaker than ever and that change is on the horizon aren’t as convincing as they used to be.

“In no way does any of this mean that Maduro is getting more popular,” Chirino said. “Maduro remains the most rejected man in the country.”

But while people believe Maduro is illegitimate, they also don’t see themselves represented by Guaidó and the opposition.

“The country feels like its been orphaned,” Chirino said. “They don’t have a government and they feel abandoned.”

Despite not having the support of the military, the courts, or the executive branch, Guaidó — the president without a palace — has accomplished much during his first six months.

He’s won the recognition of a large swath of the international community, he’s appointed ambassadors in key roles, he’s laid out a clear vision for what the country might look like once Maduro has been removed, and kept an often divided opposition in line.

“He has made the world understand, once and for all, that there’s a dictatorship in Venezuela involved in drug trafficking that is blocking any kind of solution,” said Diego Moya-Ocampos, a political analyst with London-based IHS Markit. “Having reached this point has been incredibly difficult.”

But none of those achievements will mean much if Guaidó can’t drive Maduro from office and hold free and fair elections. And his window to accomplish that seems to be closing, Chirino said.

“If there are no concrete results from these dialogues, it’s going to be a very painful blow to him.” he said. “Personally, I think Guaidó’s time has already expired.”

This story was originally published July 23, 2019 at 6:00 AM.