Is Juan Guaidó the man who will end 20 years of Chavismo in Venezuela?

Twenty years ago this Saturday, a 44-year-old charismatic political outsider rose to power in Venezuela and changed the face of the continent. His name was Hugo Chávez.

Today, the future of Chavismo — a unique political ideology that blends populism and socialism with a strong dose of authoritarianism — seems more threatened than ever. And the man tightening the noose around Chávez’s legacy is, once again, a young, charismatic political newcomer: Juan Guaidó.

Venezuelans at home and around the world are expected to take to the streets on Saturday to demand that Chávez’s handpicked successor, Nicolás Maduro, step down and clear the way for new elections.

Energized by international backing and public discontent, Guaidó, 35, is promising that it could be the largest march in the nation’s history and will help show Maduro that he has no future in the country. He’s also trying to convince the military that they’re supporting the wrong man.

“Almost all the pieces are in place,” Guaidó told his supporters Thursday, hinting that he was in touch with disgruntled factions of the military. “We’re missing one or two pieces, and you know what they are.”

If Guaidó does manage to execute his plan, it will end one of the most complex and dramatic periods of South America’s recent history.

Chávez’s Ascent

Chávez burst onto the national stage in 1992 when he and other mid-ranking military officers tried to oust President Carlos Andrés Pérez. The coup attempt failed, but Chávez — the young officer in the red beret — became a symbol for national discontent. He was pardoned after spending two years in jail and made a pilgrimage to Cuba in 1994, where he met then leader Fidel Castro. The aging Communist would become a mentor and close friend to Chávez, who referred to him as a father figure and a model for Latin America.

In 1998, Chávez ran for president as an independent. His folksy charm and anti-establishment rhetoric struck a chord, and he won 56 percent of the vote, according to the National Electoral Council. When he took office on Feb. 2, 1999, he immediately began reshaping the country. Using the nation’s vast oil wealth to push through socialist reforms and build a coalition of like-minded leaders in Latin America, Chávez became a darling of the global left and beloved by many of the nation’s poorest. As he built homes, hospitals and schools, his “21st century socialism” dramatically reduced the income gap.

But as his power grew, so did the abuses. His administration expropriated thousands of acres of land and hundreds of companies, drawing fire from the business class and the traditional ruling elite. Corruption and impunity plagued his administration. Venezuela became one of the most dangerous countries in the hemisphere, beset by power outages and food shortages.

When he died in 2013 at the age of 58 due to an undisclosed form of cancer, the country was well on its way to being an economic basket case. Despite sitting on the world’s largest oil reserves and vast gold fields, Venezuela hasn’t been able to keep its people fed, or public utilities running. The United Nations estimates that more than 3 million people have fled the country in recent years — almost a tenth of the population.

Forged in Dictatorship

Guaidó was just 16 when Chávez came to power, and he often says his generation was “raised and forged in dictatorship.” His political awakening came in 2007, when students spearheaded protests against the government’s decision to shut down RCTV television. Mentored by the founder of the Voluntad Popular political party, Leopoldo López, who remains under house arrest, Guaidó became a congressman in 2015 but worked in relative obscurity until the parliament’s power-sharing arrangement made him National Assembly president last month.

He caught international attention Jan. 23 when — presiding over a massive rally — he declared that last year’s presidential elections were invalid, that the presidency was therefore vacant, and that the constitution required him, as head of congress, to be acting president. Within hours, Washington threw its support behind Guaidó and dozens of other countries have followed suit.

In a recent poll by Meganalisis, 84 percent of those surveyed said they recognized Guaidó as the legitimate president.

Betrayal?

Even people who were once staunch Chávez supporters say they feel betrayed.

Germán Ferrer was a deputy with the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) until he and his wife — former chief prosecutor Luisa Ortega — fled the country in 2017 after denouncing government corruption.

Ferrer, 73, says he was enamored with Chávez’s vision of creating a more inclusive, productive and ethical society. But he eventually soured on the revolution as he saw the administration consumed by cronyism and corruption and watched the government gut the private sector and agriculture. The idea was that the private sector had to be dismantled so that a more compassionate form of business could emerge, Ferrer explained, “but they never got beyond the destruction.”

When Chávez, on his deathbed, picked Maduro to be his successor, Ferrer said many in the party felt cheated. “We know what [Maduro] is made of, we know how incapable he is, and that’s why he’s made so many mistakes,” he said.

Maduro narrowly won a contested election in 2013. After sidelining the opposition congress — and most of his viable opponents — he called snap elections in May 2018 that the National Electoral Council says he won with 68 percent of the vote amid an opposition boycott. While Maduro says that vote gives him the right to rule through 2025, more than 40 nations have said those elections were plagued by fraud and, therefore, invalid.

Maduro sees dark forces behind the latest round of demonstrations. He has repeatedly claimed that he’s the victim of a U.S.-backed coup plot and that Guaidó is little more than a Washington puppet.

But Ferrer said Maduro only has himself to blame.

“His most damaging strategic mistake was to make himself dictator to hold onto power, not realizing that it would backfire on him,” Ferrer said. “He should have let the people truly decide who they wanted as president.”

Ferrer, who briefly worked alongside Guaidó in the National Assembly, said the young congressman always impressed him with his seriousness of purpose and speaking abilities. Tall and lean, Guaidó’s speeches and mannerisms remind many of a young Barack Obama — a stark contrast to Maduro’s often rambling, graceless deliveries.

Ferrer says he doesn’t think Maduro can politically survive in the current environment. He might stay in power a few more weeks or months, but this is the beginning of the end for Chavismo. “As you say in the United States, the hand has been dealt.”

Some of the most optimistic in the opposition believe there’s something magical about Saturday — the 20th anniversary of Chávez’s first election.

“There are those who hope that day is the end, that it becomes an emblematic day,” Ferrer said. “They think the day that started this disaster should end this disaster.”

This story was originally published February 1, 2019 at 4:13 PM.