To help a political ally, Nicaragua drops visa requirements for Cubans
Nicaragua will allow Cubans to enter the country without visas, a step announced at a time the island’s government —battling a severe economic crisis and growing popular discontent — is seeking ways to export dissent.
The measure could mean an increase in the number of Cubans seeking to enter the U.S. via the southern border just when arrivals are already hitting record-high numbers.
As of Monday, Nicaragua’s Ministry of the Interior implemented a no-visa policy for Cuban citizens who want to enter the country, Vice Minister Luis Cañas said in a statement. According to the official, the measure is due to the high number of visa applications from Cubans with relatives in Nicaragua. The new policy seeks to promote “commercial exchange, tourism and humanitarian family relations,” the statement says.
The elimination of the visa requirement in a country that is part of a land route to the U.S. border with Mexico could fuel a new Cuban exodus, experts and activists warn.
“Indeed, there has already been a substantial flow of Cubans to the United States and other countries, pushed by the health, economic and political crisis in Cuba, and this exodus will probably intensify in the coming months,” said Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.
Cuba is facing a severe economic crisis, with shortages of goods, skyrocketing inflation, and little prospect of rapid recovery, after suffering almost two years of economic paralysis due to the pandemic. The government allowed the creation of small private companies but has maintained a socialist centralized economy model with very low productivity rates. The country also remains unattractive for foreign investors.
While U.S. sanctions have cut government revenue from remittances and travel to Cuba, activists note it has made it more difficult to send aid to family members on the island.
Many Cubans are looking for alternative ways to emigrate due to the suspension of consular services at the U.S. Embassy in Havana since 2017, as a result of the so-called “sonic attacks” or “anomalous health incidents,” according to the terminology now used by the current administration, said Duany, who has studied Cuban migration patterns for several decades.
In addition to the economic troubles, young Cubans are being pushed out by the latest wave of repression against those who joined mass protests in July or have criticized the government on social media. Cuban authorities recently pressured several dissidents and activists to leave the country — an old strategy used over the years to weaken the domestic opposition.
Anecdotally, many Cubans have commented on social media about their intention to emigrate following the elimination of pandemic-related travel restrictions on Nov. 15. That day, the Cuban government reopened international airports after a prolonged closure.
“Although the Cuban government closed the borders in March 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, since then, thousands of Cubans have managed to travel to other countries by legal or clandestine means, as the increase in Cuban rafters intercepted by the U.S. Coast Guard shows,” Duany said.
The FIU professor noted that a growing number of Cubans have also moved to South and Central American countries such as Guyana, Suriname, Colombia, Panama, Honduras, Chile, and Uruguay.
“Complicated migration routes have also been reported from Cuba to Russia, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia with the intention of entering the European Union,” he added.
The number of Cubans trying to reach the United States has increased recently, with figures that emulate those reported after the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 2015.
According to statistics from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, in the fiscal year 2021, which began in October 2020 and ended in September this year, more than 39,000 Cubans tried to reach the U.S., the majority through the border with Mexico. The figure is significantly higher than the one reported in fiscal 2020, about 14,000.
It remains unclear how many Cubans arriving at the border in fiscal year 2021 were eventually admitted because the statistics include both expulsions and detentions. The latter could be the preamble to an asylum process or obtaining a conditional entry permit or parole. Yet, the numbers show a marked increase in Cuban emigration overall after a significant drop during the Donald Trump administration.
These recent numbers likely include Cubans who left the country for destinations such as Brazil and Uruguay in previous years. Many have been on the move again, making the dangerous trek through jungles and areas controlled by drug traffickers to cross Colombia, Central America and Mexico, on their way to the United States.
“The country is once again bleeding its generational talent,” said Ric Herrero, the executive director of the Cuba Study Group. “What does that mean for the future of a country that is resisting economic and political change? It doesn’t bode well.”
Two political allies challenge the U.S.
The Biden administration has recently sanctioned Cuba and Nicaragua: in the case of Cuba for the repression against the July 11 protesters; in Nicaragua’s case, because of the repression against opposition candidates and the electoral fraud that led to the reelection of Daniel Ortega.
This is not the first time both countries seem to have weaponized migration against the U.S. in a concerted fashion.
In 2015, a few days after a trip by Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez to that country, the Ortega regime denied entry to nearly 3,000 Cubans who were stranded in Costa Rica and blocked regional efforts to solve the crisis. Eventually, the Costa Rican government helped coordinate a complex transfer operation of nearly 8,000 Cubans by air and sea to Mexico, bound for the United States.
Echoing the accusations of the Cuban government, the then Nicaraguan Vice Foreign Minister Dennis Moncada said at the time that his country didn’t want to “legitimize” the “dry foot, wet foot” policy, which allowed Cubans arriving in the United States to stay in the country legally. Its elimination had been a foreign policy goal of the Cuban government for years.
The Nicaraguan official urged the Barack Obama administration, which was committed to improving relations with Cuba, to eliminate it.
In January 2017, just days before leaving office, the Obama administration did it, citing the need to treat all migrants equally.
This story was originally published November 23, 2021 at 6:17 PM.