As Maduro’s grip on Venezuela tightens, Guaidó’s support abroad shows signs of fracturing
As Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s allies took control of the National Assembly Tuesday, the international community’s response was decidedly muted.
The Trump administration was joined by Colombia, Brazil and Chile in declaring their steadfast recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s rightful president but other important international leaders appeared to take a step back from fully supporting the opposition leader.
Uruguay and Costa Rica vowed not to recognize the new legislature, which until this week had been considered Venezuela’s last democratic institution. But they stopped short of stating whether they still consider Guaidó to be the troubled nation’s legitimate leader.
The European Union took a similar approach, stating it will remain engaged with all those who support a return to democracy in Venezuela, “including in particular Juan Guaidó.”
The lack of a joint response could spell trouble for the opposition, which has been unable to draw people to the streets and is relying heavily on the international community to pressure Maduro into leaving power or holding a new election. On the streets of Caracas Tuesday, few seemed to be paying attention to either side.
“With some exceptions, we’re seeing a very cautious response, probably because the opposition’s decision to extend the life of the outgoing National Assembly and the interim government is rather hard to assimilate - both legally and politically,” said Phil Gunson, a Caracas-based analyst for the International Crisis Group.
All branches of government now under Maduro’s control
Maduro has now tightened his grip on the nation’s institutions as a legislature packed with his loyalists took their seats following a December election widely decried as a sham.
The new lawmakers marched to the legislative palace carrying framed images of South American independence hero Simón Bolivar and the late Hugo Chavez.
“Long live the Bolivarian revolution!” they shouted after entering the building.
Wearing face masks, they packed the halls of the neoclassical chamber and selected former communications minister and longtime Maduro ally Jorge Rodriguez as the legislature’s president. Socialist party boss Diosdado Cabello rejected criticisms that they’d been elected in a fraudulent election.
Separately, Guaidó held an online assembly in which he said opposition legislators elected in 2015 would continue to hold sessions and push for Maduro’s ouster.
“We are here for our people,” the opposition leader said. “We are here for those who don’t give up. We are here for those who want to return to their country.”
The Dec. 6 vote for a new legislature was widely decried by the international community. The pro-Maduro Supreme Court took control of several major opposition parties ahead of the election. Guaidó faction refused to participate, instead holding a referendum declaring Maduro’s rule illegitimate.
Analysts are concerned that with Maduro now in control of all branches of Venezuela’s government, he could proceed with cracking down on government detractors. In recent months, the socialist leader has floated the idea of holding a “public trial” for Guaidó, who has called on the military to revolt.
“After five years of going around the opposition-controlled legislature, Maduro has succeeded in running out the clock,” said Geoff Ramsey, Venezuela director for the Washington Office on Latin America think tank. “The regime now has full control over every institution in the country, and the opposition is at its weakest point in years.”
International response shows lack of unity
Guaidó’s recognition by the U.S. and other nations as Venezuela’s “interim president” has rested on his position as president of the National Assembly. The previously little-known lawmaker burst into the scene in January 2019 when he declared before thousands of adoring followers that the constitution gave him the right to take the country’s highest office because Maduro’s reelection was illegitimate.
The 2018 vote was widely decried, in part because key opposition leaders were barred from running and the elections council is stacked with his supporters.
President-elect Joe Biden’s Venezuela strategy is still unclear, but he has called Maduro a “dictator.” The Trump administration responded swiftly in rejecting the new legislature.
“We consider this group to be illegitimate and will not recognize it nor its pronouncements,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said. “President Guaidó and the National Assembly are the only democratic representatives of the Venezuelan people as recognized by the international community, and they should be freed from Maduro’s harassment, threats, persecution, and other abuses.”
Other longtime Guaidó allies in Latin America including Colombia and Chile issued similar statements, calling for new parliamentary and presidential elections to be held. But others in the region took a decidedly more measured approach. Uruguay condemned the new legislature, but said nothing of Guaidó.
One of the most outspoken coalitions - the Lima Group - issued a response late Tuesday, saying they’d recognize the outgoing legislative commission led by Guaidó. The statement did not specifically address him as interim president, as has been done in the past. And not all the coalition’s usual signatories were included.
“It is incredible to see how divided the international community has become in responding to this slow-moving train wreck,” Ramsey said. “Even though no one is surprised by today’s outcome, the opposition’s international supporters have scattered into different camps over the legitimacy of Guaidó’s claim to the presidency.”
Opposition continues to fracture
There were new signs Tuesday that the opposition is steadily fracturing.
A handful of anti-Maduro lawmakers decided not to continue in their posts. The resignations came weeks after lawmakers with Democratic Action, the country’s second-largest opposition party, abstained from voting on whether to extend the legislature’s mandate.
In an editorial in the Spanish newspaper El Mundo titled “We can’t be like them,” opposition lawmaker Stalin Gonzalez said a “profound revision of our fight and efforts taken over the last five years” is needed.
“Unity is an important value, but accompanied by clear and credible ideas,” he wrote.
On the streets of Caracas, some ardent Maduro supporters praised the new assembly.
“We’re here to take back the assembly that was taken from us - from the bunch of thieves that took it and did nothing good for the country,” retired policewoman Julia Sánchez said.
Others expressed a tired acceptance of the political turmoil they have little say over.
“People aren’t paying much attention to politics,” said José Rodríguez, an artisan. “ I think most people want to know nothing about it.”
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Camille Rodríguez Montilla contributed to this report from Caracas, Venezuela.
This story was originally published January 6, 2021 at 7:00 AM.
