Josh Turek Edges Out GOP's Ashley Hinson in Internal Iowa Senate Poll

Democrat Josh Turek narrowly edged out Republican Ashley Hinson in a new internal poll of the IowaSenate race released on Monday.

Iowa, once a swing state that backed former President Barack Obama in both of his campaign runs, emerged as a Republican stronghold over the past decade, backing President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024. But Democrats hope to expand the Senate battleground and make competitive this year's Senate race as polls point to a favorable national environment fueled by Trump's declining national approval rating.

The race will be a barometer of whether Democrats can regain ground in the Midwest after a decade of losses in the region. Early polling points to a close race between Turek, a state legislator, and Hinson, a United States representative. They are running to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who chose not to run for reelection.

Newsweek reached out to the Hinson and Turek campaigns for comment via email.

Turek Edges Out Hinson: New Poll

A new poll from Global Strategy Group, first reported by Politico, showed Turek with a 2-point lead over Hinson. The poll is a Turek internal.

Turek received support from 47 percent of respondents, compared to Hinson's 45 percent, in the poll. It found that Trump's popularity was underwater in Iowa, with 45 percent of respondents viewing him favorably compared to 52 percent who viewed him unfavorably. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from June 8-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

What Do Other Polls Show?

Polls show a close race in the Hawkeye State despite its increasingly Republican lean.

A Public Policy Polling survey, conducted among 557 registered voters between June 3-4 on behalf of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), showed an even race with Hinson and Turek having support from 46 percent of respondents.

An Echelon Insights poll, which surveyed 337 likely voters between April 3-9, showed Turek up a single point with 46 percent to Hinson's 45 percent.

An earlier GBAO poll, which surveyed 1,200 likely voters from March 10-16, showed Hinson up 4 points with 47 percent to Turek's 43 percent support.

Hinson Favored in Prediction Markets

Although some recent polls have shown Turek with a lead, prediction markets give Hinson an advantage. She had a 58 percent chance on Kalshi and a 61 percent chance on Polymarket of defeating Turek in November as of Monday afternoon.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends.

Who Are Iowa Senate Candidates Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek?

Hinson and Turek secured their party's nominations in their primaries earlier this month and are heading to face off in the general election.

Hinson has represented northeastern Iowa in Congress since 2021. She flipped a seat held by a Democratic representative that was viewed as competitive. Prior to her election, she worked as a journalist and anchor for KCRG-TV and a member of the Iowa House of Representatives.

She has the support from Trump in the race.

Turek has represented a southwestern Iowa district in the Iowa House of Representatives since 2023. Before entering politics, he played wheelchair basketball in four Paralympic games. He has cast himself as a moderate who is able to win over Trump voters, as he represents a district the president won three times.

How Iowa Shifted From Purple to Red

Iowa was viewed as a battleground for much of the 2000s, with Obama carrying the state by about 10 points in 2008 and six points in 2012. But Trump performed well in the state in each of his presidential bids, winning it by 10 points in 2016, eight points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024.

Iowa's shifts are emblematic of those across the Midwest, where Democrats lost ground among white working-class voters who flocked to Trump and Republicans over the past decade. Winning back those voters will be key to flipping the state in the midterms.

Trump's popularity and tariffs, which have hit Iowa hard as many farmers have dealt with the impact, could be major issues for Republicans in November. Gas prices have also emerged as a sticking point for the GOP amid the Iran war, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent global oil prices surging.

Forecasters still give Republicans an advantage in Iowa, with the Cook Political Report classifying the race as Lean Republican.

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of Sabato's Crystal Ball wrote in a June 3 update that Hinson has "performed well in her light red 2nd District and starts the general election with a notable cash advantage," though polling points to a "single-digit edge for Republicans." They shifted the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.

"Even as we're downgrading this race for Republicans, Democrats' larger-picture challenge remains: while they have several GOP-held offensive opportunities, many of them are clearly red-leaning," they wrote.

The last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate race in Iowa was in 2008, when Tom Harkin was reelected. Since then, Republicans have held the state's Senate seats. Iowa's federal representation is also now entirely Republican, and the GOP has dominated recent statewide contests.

Democrats' Chances of Winning Senate Control

Historically, the party in the White House loses congressional seats during midterms, as they are typically viewed as a referendum on the party in power, making Democrats optimistic about reclaiming the House of Representatives.

However, the Senate map presents a steep uphill battle.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to secure a majority. North Carolina is crucial to Democrats' bid to retake control of the Senate in the midterms; it's the only GOP-held seat Trump won by single digits up for grabs in November.

Democrats view the seat in Maine, held by Republican Senator Susan Collins, as another top target, as Maine is a Democratic-leaning state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points in 2024. Democrats are also on the defensive in two Trump-won states, Georgia and Michigan.

But even if Democrats win all four of those races, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority, so they are eyeing states where Trump won by double digits, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, as potential flip opportunities. Those states are more conservative, but polls suggest races could be close.

For now, prediction markets expect the upper chamber to stay red. Kalshi gives the GOP a 58 percent chance and Polymarket gives them a 57 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate as of Monday.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gabe Whisnant and Anthony Murray.

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This story was originally published June 22, 2026 at 3:24 PM.