Mexico inflation likely slowed again in May, still above cenbank target

MEXICO CITY - Mexico's annual inflation likely slowed in May, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will maintain its interest rate at current levels for an extended period.

• The median estimate from 15 analysts projected annual headline inflation falling to 4.03% from 4.45% in April.

• If confirmed, the reading would mark a second consecutive month of decline, though it remains above the central bank's target of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.

• On a monthly basis, headline consumer prices are estimated to have fallen 0.12%, driven primarily by seasonal electricity subsidies in some cities and lower prices for fruits and vegetables.

• Core inflation, which strips out volatile items, is seen easing to 4.20% year-on-year from 4.26% - a fourth straight monthly decline and the lowest since May 2025.

• The monthly core index is expected to rise 0.24%, reflecting continued pressure on goods, though partially offset by "Hot Sale" online shopping discounts.

• Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% in early May, with its governing board saying it considers it appropriate to hold the rate at its current level going forward.

• The rate decision was not unanimous: deputy governors Jonathan Heath and Galia Borja voted to leave the rate unchanged at 6.75%.

• Market expectations from both Citi and central bank surveys suggest the benchmark rate will remain at 6.50% through the end of 2026 and 2027.

• Official data from the national statistics agency INEGI will be released on Tuesday.

• The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for June 25.

(Reporting by Gabriel Burin and Noe Torres, Writing by Natalia Siniawski, Editing by Iñigo Alexander)

Copyright Reuters or USA Today Network via Reuters Connect.

This story was originally published June 8, 2026 at 12:24 PM.