Nithya Raman Chances Against Karen Bass for LA Mayor Race

In the Los Angeles mayoral race, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, a Democrat, has already advanced to the November runoff, but her opponent has yet to be decided.

With around 80 percent of the votes counted, progressive city councilmember Nithya Raman has now pulled ahead of reality TV star Spencer Pratt in second place for the first time since election night.

Raman's surge comes as late-arriving mail ballots continue to skew heavily toward liberal candidates in a city where Democrats dominate the electorate.

Why It Matters

Raman's new lead has tightened the race for the second runoff slot, with the outcome still highly volatile as mail-in ballots continue to be counted.

Which candidate ends up facing Bass matters because polling suggests she has different chances of winning depending on who she goes up against, with Raman appearing to be more likely to win in a head-to-head contest.

What To Know

According to the latest tally from the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk's office, Bass has secured around 34.7 percent of the vote, as of 12:04 p.m. ET on June 8.

Raman now sits in second place with roughly 27.1 percent, edging past Pratt, who has fallen to around 26.7 percent, a difference of around 3,000 votes.

Raman, a Los Angeles City Council member aligned with the city's progressive wing, has built support around housing policy and homelessness reform.

Pratt, meanwhile, is running as a Republican but entered the race as a political outsider. He has campaigned on public safety and criticized Bass's handling of the Palisades wildfire response, in which he lost his home.

A UC Berkeley–LA Times poll conducted shortly before the election showed Bass narrowly ahead in a tightly grouped field, with the incumbent mayor at 26 percent, Raman at 25 percent, and Pratt at 22 percent - all within the poll's margin of error.

But in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, the poll found that Raman would lead Bass with 32 percent to 28 percent of registered voters.

The same poll found that the incumbent mayor would lead Pratt in a hypothetical showdown, 47 percent to 29 percent.

However, both matchups showed a large share of undecided voters or respondents saying they would choose neither, making it even more unclear how the race may shape up.

Raman's chances of winning the race have also increased, according to prediction market Kalshi. The site now places Bass' chances of winning at 59 percent, Raman's at 40 percent, and Pratt's at 1 percent.

Another prediction platform, Polymarket, puts Bass' chances of winning at 56 percent, Raman's at 41 percent, and Pratt's at 1 percent.

Trump’s Anger With Postal Votes

President Donald Trump has long criticized postal votes and has repeatedly suggested, without evidence, that delayed ballot processing in Democratic-leaning states enables electoral manipulation.

The slow vote count in California has again drawn his ire, with the president taking to Truth Social to claim that Democrats are trying to "steal" the gubernatorial and Los Angeles mayoral races with "the very late and massive numbers of MAIL IN BALLOTS."

What Happens Next

Mail ballots postmarked by election day are still being accepted and counted in Los Angeles County, meaning the final composition of the vote could continue to shift for several days.

Once counting is complete, the top two finishers will advance to the November runoff, regardless of party affiliation. Bass already secured her place within hours of polls closing on June 2.

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This story was originally published June 8, 2026 at 12:06 PM.