Bill Cassidy Faces Donald Trump's Impeachment Revenge

Republican Senator Bill Cassidy appears set to finish third in Louisiana’s GOP Senate primary on Saturday despite spending the past 18 months attempting to rehabilitate himself with President Donald Trump. His efforts at atonement have failed to move primary voters, suggesting the former president’s grip on Republican politics transcends policy positioning and may represent a loyalty test without redemption.

Cassidy is trailing Representative Julia Letlow, Trump’s endorsed candidate, and state Treasurer John Fleming in polling heading into the May 16 primary. The race has become a referendum on whether a senator can overcome a single vote: Cassidy’s 2021 decision to convict Trump during the president’s second impeachment trial in the wake of the U.S. Capitol riot.

The Atonement That Failed

For nearly two years, Cassidy has carefully aligned himself politically with Trump. He backed controversial Cabinet nominees, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services. He adopted more Trump-friendly rhetoric, embraced tariffs despite earlier skepticism, and poured nearly $9 million of his $9.3 million campaign war chest into advertising and voter outreach.

None of it worked.

According to an Emerson College Polling/KLFY News 10 survey conducted April 24-26, 2026, Fleming leads with 28 percent support among likely Republican primary voters, followed by Letlow at 27 percent, Cassidy at 21 percent and 22 percent undecided.

“The vote to convict Trump on the impeachment charges was a huge deal for Republican voters and party activists in the state. Everything since that time has been viewed through this lens,” Robert Hogan, chair of the Political Science Department at Louisiana State University, told Newsweek.

The backlash was immediate. The Louisiana Republican Party formally censured Cassidy in February 2021, and it has never reversed that decision. Five years later, the political damage still appears unresolved.

For many Republican primary voters, Cassidy’s impeachment vote was never seen as a disagreement over policy or constitutional principle. Instead, it was viewed as a direct repudiation of Trump himself. Everything Cassidy has done since then has been filtered through that perception.

“Given their strong devotion to Trump, it became an uphill battle for Cassidy in trying to rehabilitate his reputation in the minds of Republicans,” Hogan said.

That reality has shaped nearly every aspect of Cassidy’s reelection campaign. His messaging and voting record have consistently emphasized alignment with Trump’s priorities and agenda. But Trump’s opposition to Cassidy has remained unequivocal.

In December, Trump endorsed Letlow, the congresswoman and widow of late Representative Luke Letlow, and has actively campaigned against Cassidy ever since.

“Since Trump’s reemergence, Cassidy has tried desperately to repair this damage, going to great lengths to support Trump policy initiatives and controversial appointments,” Hogan said. “What does it say if Cassidy, a mainstream Republican with a very conservative voting record who constantly touts his support and agreement of Trump doesn’t win his party’s nomination?”

The emerging answer from polling and political analysts is crystal clear: for many Republican voters, support for Trump may outweigh nearly every other measure of ideological alignment or conservative credentials.

Trump’s 80 Percent

Trump still maintains roughly 80 percent approval among Louisiana Republicans, even as his national numbers have slipped amid legal troubles and internal party turmoil. The Emerson College Polling/KLFY News 10 poll found that 41 percent of voters believe Letlow would be most supportive of Trump’s agenda, compared to 21 percent for Cassidy.

Experts say that the divide explains the dynamics of the current race.

Pearson Cross, the director of the School of Behavioral and Social Sciences at the University of Louisiana at Monroe, told Newsweek that Letlow's candidacy likely would not be viable without Trump's endorsement. Though Letlow has at times positioned herself as a more moderate Republican, Trump's backing has largely shielded her from intraparty attacks.

“Letlow in office seemed to be a somewhat moderate politician and might be taking heat from the MAGA elements in the state party right now, if it were not for the endorsement of DJT and the strong and vocal support of Governor Jeff Landry,” Cross said. “It is hard to imagine her candidacy without that support, in fact.”

That dynamic has also reduced one of Cassidy's traditional advantages: money.

Cassidy has vastly outspent the rest of the field, but Cross said financial strength matters less in a race defined more by Trump loyalty than persuasion.

“Money always matters,” Cross said. “However, Cassidy is probably reserving a significant portion of that money for the runoff, and then the general election where he will need it IF, and it’s a big if, he makes the runoff.”

More fundamentally, Cross argued that most Republican voters have already made up their minds about Cassidy.

“With a candidate as well-known as Bill Cassidy, most voters have already made up their mind about him one way or the other,” Cross said. “Convincing a voter to vote for or against Cassidy is going to be hard going.”

That dynamic has also helped Fleming emerge as a credible contender despite significantly lower spending.

“Fleming is the candidate doing the most with the least,” Cross said. “Voters seem to be looking for a reason not to support Cassidy.”

The System Mattered, But Trump Mattered More

Louisiana changed its election system after Cassidy was last reelected in 2020, shifting from an open "jungle primary" that allowed voters of any party to participate to a semi-closed system limited to registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

That change created new vulnerabilities for Cassidy. His earlier statewide wins depended in part on support from moderates, Democrats, and independents who could participate under the open system.

Robert Hogan, chair of the political science department at Louisiana State University, said Cassidy's victories under the old system were built on that broader coalition.

“Cassidy’s victories in both previous state-wide Senate elections were under an open election system that enabled him to attract support from voters regardless of their party registration,” Hogan said. “This change to semi-closed primaries created a vulnerability for Cassidy given that he could no longer rely on moderate voters.”

Hogan, however, said the rules change alone does not explain Cassidy's current position. Trump's opposition remains the central factor.

“Under an open election system as has been used in the past, Cassidy may have been able to sell himself credibly as a moderate conservative and may have even used the absence of a Trump endorsement to his advantage by capturing many Democratic voters,” Hogan said. “The new primary system closed off that possibility.”

Edward E. Chervenak, director of the UNO Survey Research Center, framed the contest as a bigger test of the party’s direction.

“The broader question in the election is whether Louisiana voters will continue to support the establishment-style conservatism personified by Bill Cassidy, or instead prefer a more Trump-aligned direction for the Republican Party,” Chervenak said. “If the recent election in Indiana is any indication, Cassidy may face serious political danger in his bid for reelection.”

Indiana offers a recent parallel. In May, Republican primary voters there ousted several state senators who had opposed Trump-backed redistricting plans, underscoring the reach of his influence beyond high-profile national contests.

What Comes After Defeat?

If Cassidy loses Saturday, or if he advances but falls short in June, his political future is uncertain. He would face a crossroads that other Republicans who voted to convict Trump have already navigated in different ways.

Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, both of whom voted to convict Trump in 2021, have remained in the Senate. Collins, a Republican from Maine, has avoided a Trump-backed primary challenge in a state where Trump has performed poorly in recent presidential elections. Murkowski faced Trump's opposition in 2022 but survived in part because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, which reshaped the dynamics of her reelection race.

Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican who also voted to convict Trump, chose a different path. He announced in March 2025 that he would not seek reelection, effectively stepping away from a prolonged confrontation with Trump-aligned forces in his state party.

Cassidy's post-primary trajectory remains unclear. Some analysts suggest that a defeat could push him toward a more independent posture, similar to that of other Republicans who have weathered Trump-backed challenges. Others argue the modern GOP leaves little room for that outcome.

David A. Hughes, an associate professor of political science at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, told Newsweek that Trump has reshaped Republican orthodoxy in ways that make breakaways increasingly difficult.

“Trump’s opposition to Cassidy is 100 percent what’s made this a competitive election,” said Hughes. “Despite being term-limited, the Republican Party is still firmly in the hands of Donald Trump. That is significant because Trump has single-handedly forced Republicans to do about-faces on policies they once opposed, including tariffs, for example.”

Hughes added that Trump's influence would likely persist until he is no longer a central political force.

“Once he’s gone, the party will have to rediscover what its agenda is. As long as Trump remains on the scene, the GOP is not evolving. All the forces in the party who once opposed him have been effectively cashiered, and so now it’s Cassidy’s turn.”

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published May 15, 2026 at 9:57 AM.