Poll finds Karen Bass ahead in LA mayor's race and Xavier Becerra emerging as front-runner in California governor's race

LOS ANGELES - Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass continues to hold the lead among likely voters in her bid for reelection, but not by a big enough margin to avoid a likely runoff with either Spencer Pratt or Nithya Raman, who are battling for second position, a new poll found.

The same poll found Democrat Xavier Becerra continuing his surge in the race for California governor, emerging as a front-runner, with Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer and Republican commentator Steve Hilton vying for the second spot in a tight primary election.

The latest poll comes just three weeks before the June 2 primary and offers new insights into two pivotal races that have been marked by twists and uncertainty.

In the governor's race, Democrats have been struggling for months to find a front-runner in the large pool of candidates.

With support for the Democratic candidates split among their party's electorate, Hilton - who is backed by President Donald Trump - has emerged as one of the strongest candidates. But in the weeks since former Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the race amid sexual assault allegations, Becerra - the former Secretary of Health and Human Services - has risen to the top of the field.

The poll released Wednesday by Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics found Becerra at 19%, with Steyer and Hilton at 17%.

The poll also offered some clarity in the mayor's race, in which the top two vote-getters will advance to a Nov. 3 runoff unless a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote.

Bass jumped to 30% support in the poll, up 10 points from the last poll conducted by the same group released in March. The new poll of 350 likely voters in Los Angeles was conducted Saturday and Sunday - after a televised debate among Bass, Pratt and Raman - and has a margin of error of 5%.

Pratt, the former reality TV star whose home burned in last year's Palisades fire, is now at 22% support, gaining 12 points from the last poll. Raman, a Los Angeles City Council member and former Bass ally, was in third at 20%, up 10 points from March and within the 5% margin of error with Pratt.

"It's really up for grabs who will be in the second spot," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Tech entrepreneur Adam Miller was favored by about 7% and community organizer Rae Huang by roughly 4%.

The poll showed a sharp reduction in undecided Angelenos as the primary closes in. More than 50% of voters were undecided in March when Emerson's last poll was released. Now, that number has dwindled to just 16%.

But those 16% of undecided voters could play a big role in the outcome.

When undecided voters were asked who they would vote for if they had to make a choice, Raman leapfrogged Pratt - though by less than a percentage point, the poll found. Factoring in which way undecided voters were leaning, Bass would lead at 35%, Raman would follow at 23.3% and Pratt would garner 22.9%.

Bass is leading with women at 36%, while Pratt gets a plurality of men at 30%. Raman, meanwhile, was leading with younger voters, taking in 31% of voters under age 40. Bass followed with 20%, and Pratt with 13%, the poll showed.

Bass dominated with older voters, getting 47% support from people over age 60. Pratt had 25% of the over-60 vote and Raman trailed far behind with 6%. Bass also led with Black voters, 42% of whom broke for the mayor, while 13% were with Pratt and 14% were with Raman.

More Latinos supported Pratt, at 25%, but Bass still led with Latinos at 33%.

Kimball said that the poll showed Pratt - the only Republican in the nonpartisan race - has a solid base, but that Raman could still surpass him if she can turn out younger voters and those who are undecided.

"It's clear there has been a consolidation among Republicans behind Spencer Pratt," said Dave Jacobson, a Democratic consultant and co-founder of the political consulting firm J&Z Strategies.

Jacobson said there is still fluidity in the mayoral race, especially as voters continue to hang on to their ballots due to the volatility of the California gubernatorial race.

"It's a nail-biter of a race for who's second, there's no doubt about that," Jacobson said. "Conventional wisdom leans toward idea that the Republican will consolidate Republicans and most likely will be in the runoff."

Pratt received support from just over 61% of the Republicans who were surveyed in the Emerson poll. He also received nearly 50% of the independents surveyed, significantly more than Bass and Raman, who each had about 12% support from independents.

Raman said in a statement that the poll showed "growing support for our campaign to make L.A. more affordable."

Pratt's campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. Bass spokesman Alex Stack said the mayor's camp looks "forward to winning the general election against either Nithya Raman or Spencer Pratt."

Paul Mitchell, vice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data Inc., questioned the accuracy of the poll, noting that 33% of those surveyed were Latino and 50% were over the age of 50.

Actual turnout among Latinos is likely to be 20%, he said, and 60% of voters will probably be over age 50, Mitchell said. He said the the poll was "too young, too Latino and too few people."

In the governor poll, Republican Chad Bianco was at 11%, Democratic former Rep. Katie Porter was at 10% and San José Mayor Matt Mahan, also a Democrat, was at 8%. The two top voter-getters advance to the election in November.

The Emerson pollsters noted Becerra's support has "increased by nine points since mid-April."

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This story was originally published May 13, 2026 at 3:19 PM.