Republicans May Lose Control of Their Biggest Stronghold

For three decades, Texas has been the Republican Party’s fortress, with no Democrat winning statewide since 1994. President Donald Trump carried the state by 14 points in the last presidential election, and the GOP holds overwhelming fundraising advantages and gerrymandered maps that should render the Lone Star State untouchable.

Yet on April 8, Dan Patrick, the fiercely pro-Trump lieutenant governor, delivered a warning that reframed everything at the Texas Public Policy Foundation conference. “We’re going to have a tough time holding the Texas House,” he said, urging the warring Republican Senate factions to “get over it and come together as one,” explicitly linking the Senate runoff’s destructiveness to down-ballot vulnerability.

The indicators are stacked. Democratic primary turnout surpassed Republican turnout for the first time since 2002. A special election in deep-red Tarrant County in January produced a 31-point swing toward Democrats. Trump’s approval among Texas voters has plunged 20 net points since February 2025. Latino voters who broke historic records for Republicans just 16 months ago are abandoning the party in measurable numbers.

For the first time in two decades, Texas Republicans are no longer debating whether their state is vulnerable. They are debating whether they can hold what they have.

The Closest in a Generation

The race for John Cornyn‘s U.S. Senate seat, held by Republicans since 1993, has produced the most competitive dynamic. The Republican primary went to a May 26 runoff after Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton each fell short of the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid one. Cornyn finished at 43 percent, Paxton at 41 percent.

The Democratic side resolved more cleanly. James Talarico, a 36-year-old eighth-generation Texan and former middle-school teacher who studied theology at a Presbyterian seminary, won the nomination outright with 52 percent of the vote.

General election polling shows a dead heat. Public Policy Polling found Talarico leading Cornyn 44-43 and Paxton 47-45, both within competitive range. But Talarico’s favorability is striking; he was viewed favorably by 41 percent of voters against 35 percent unfavorable, a net +6. By comparison, Cornyn’s net favorability was -28, while Paxton’s was -24. The University of Houston and Emerson College surveys show similar tight margins.

“These numbers suggest a close race regardless of who the GOP nominates. The Texas Senate race will be highly competitive, driven by Talarico’s broad approval and Cornyn and Paxton’s general election liabilities,” Tom Jensen, a pollster working with Public Policy Polling who has tracked the state closely, said.

The Cornyn-Paxton runoff itself has become a Democratic asset. The two campaigns and their supporting super PACs have spent roughly $100 million attacking each other. Cornyn’s allies hammer Paxton over legal troubles, infidelity allegations and his 2023 impeachment. Paxton’s campaign blasts Cornyn for supporting Ukraine aid and bipartisan gun safety legislation. Trump, who promised to endorse one of them “soon” on March 4, has refused to pick a side.

At the same time, Talarico’s fundraising has been impressive. He raised $20 million from 215,000 individual donors. Ninety-eight percent of contributions came at $100 or less, with zero corporate PAC money. A viral interview on Stephen Colbert’s show in February, which CBS declined to air on broadcast, generated $2.5 million in 48 hours.

That grassroots energy matters because Talarico is attempting something Democrats have rarely succeeded at in Texas: building a coalition beyond the party’s traditional urban base. Matt Bennett, a Democratic strategist, said Talarico’s authentic religiosity sets him apart, with his faith background central to his strategy.

“Talarico is a seminarian who talks openly and authentically about his faith, which makes him unusual for a Democrat generally and different than [Colin] Allred or Beto [O’Rourke]. That makes him seem more in touch with the values of voters in the middle in Texas,” Bennett told Newsweek.

With both Republican nominees carrying significant liabilities, Democrats are patiently waiting for the outcome. Early runoff polling from Quantus Insights in late March showed Paxton leading 48.8 percent to 41.3 percent among likely runoff voters. But Democrats believe a Paxton victory would actually help their chances. His personal baggage and high unfavorable ratings make him a weaker general election opponent than Cornyn.

“Both are so unpopular and, in the case of Paxton, extreme. In the case of Cornyn, his record is bad,” political strategist Mike Madrid told Newsweek. “If you had a popular Republican candidate running, you’d have to be honest about the chances of a Democrat win.”

Alarms in the House

The Texas State House has been controlled by Republicans since 2002. They hold 88 of 150 seats. Democrats would need to flip 14 seats to take control. That’s a taller order than even the 12-seat gain they managed during the 2018 blue wave.

Yet the chamber is contested for the first time in over two decades.

The single most significant data point came on January 31, when Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election for a state Senate district in Tarrant County by 57 percent to 43 percent. Trump carried the district by 17 points in 2024. The swing toward Democrats was roughly 31 points.

Rehmet is a 33-year-old Air Force veteran and machinist union president. He was outspent approximately 12-to-1. Trump personally endorsed his opponent. Yet he won an estimated 80 percent of Hispanic voters and nearly 30 percent of voters who had previously participated in Republican primaries.

“A 9.5 on the Richter scale,” Evan Smith, co-founder of The Texas Tribune, said.

Patrick’s April 8 warning was blunt. He urged the warring Senate factions to “get over it and come together as one,” explicitly linking the runoff’s toxicity to down-ballot risk and pointing to the Rehmet upset as a cautionary example.

Democratic House campaign chair Christina Morales responded immediately: “Dan Patrick is telling Republicans they’re in trouble in November, and for once, he’s telling the truth. We have never been closer and we are not slowing down.”

GOP House Speaker Dustin Burrows fired back on X: “We will not lose the Texas House. We will fight to retain every Republican seat. I look forward to the fall campaign where we get to talk about Texas’ prosperity under Republican leadership.”

The structural opportunity is measurable. Twenty-one House members are retiring: 14 Republicans and 7 Democrats, creating an unusual number of open seats. The House Democratic Campaign Committee identified five initial targets: open seats and marginal incumbents in San Antonio, the Dallas suburbs and South Texas. But the vulnerability extends further. Multiple open Republican seats in Tarrant County and Houston suburbs show the same anti-incumbent energy the Rehmet election demonstrated.

For the first time in modern Texas history, Democrats recruited candidates in all 150 House districts. The most likely scenario involves Democrats gaining 8 to 12 seats, narrowing the Republican majority substantially without capturing it. Even that would reshape power dynamics under Burrows, who was elected with significant Democratic support.

“This 2026 race does seem to be lining up very well for the Democrats. That is seen pretty clearly by both Democrats and Republicans,” SMU political scientist Cal Jillson told KVUE.

While Democratic hopes for a so-called blue wave in Texas are increasing, the gubernatorial race remains favorable for the GOP. Governor Greg Abbott remains the clearest favorite, with January polling showing him leading Gina Hinojosa by 7 to 8 points. Those margins are tighter than his 13.3-point victory in 2018. Every major forecaster rates the race solid Republican.

A Transforming Electorate

Texas is now a majority-minority state. Hispanics are the largest ethnic group at 40.2 percent, surpassing non-Hispanic whites at 39.8 percent. Growth is concentrated in the Texas Triangle: Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Austin-San Antonio. Suburban counties cast 47 percent more ballots in 2024 than in 2016.

Latino support was instrumental for Trump’s win in Texas, where he won an estimated 55 percent of Texas Latino voters in 2024. But the Latino vote has undergone a dramatic reversal in just 16 months. A University of Houston poll from September 2025 found only 41 percent of Trump’s 2024 Latino voters would support him again.

“It’s got to be the economy,” Madrid, the longtime Latino strategist, said. “There’s no question about it. But it is also the overreach of government with the ICE raids and the crackdown for mass deportations.”

Madrid said the Democratic Party has a rare opportunity to strengthen its support among Latinos, a key and increasingly competitive bloc in Texas elections. Talarico performed particularly well in several counties near the border, areas where the GOP made significant gains in recent cycles.

Yet Republican strategist Alex Patton warns a Democratic wave might not be tied to gains with Latino voters, stating Texas voters have shown no warming to the national Democratic message.

“There is no evidence Texas voters are warming to the national Democratic message,” he told Newsweek.

Patton cited historical results to underscore the steepness of the climb. Republicans averaged 53.8 percent of the presidential vote in the state across 2012, 2016 and 2020, while Democrats averaged 43.7 percent. The GOP margin narrowed from roughly 16 points in 2012 to about 5.5 points in 2020, but a structural Republican advantage remains. “A 5-to-10-point swing toward Democrats is possible but unlikely,” Patton said.

Yet the current environment matters. Patton noted Republican enthusiasm has softened, adding, “The current political environment, marked by the start of a new war, is generating real frustration among some reliable MAGA and GOP voters. This softening could matter at the margins.”

Newsweek's reporters and editors used Martyn, our Al assistant, to help produce this story. Learn more about Martyn.

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This story was originally published April 12, 2026 at 5:00 AM.