Do Democrats or Republicans hold advantage in election indicators? What a poll found

Most presidential election indicators favor Republicans over Democrats this cycle, according to new data.

The latest Gallup report found the GOP has an advantage in eight out of 10 measures of the presidential election — including presidential job approval and economic confidence. Seven of these measures have a strong or moderate link to past presidential election outcomes.

“The political environment suggests the election is (former President Donald) Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose,” according to the report, which largely draws from a Sep. 3-15 Gallup poll. The poll sampled 1,007 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The 10 measures

• Party ID and party leaning: More U.S. adults describe themselves as Republicans or as leaning toward Republicans than those who describe themselves as Democrats or leaning toward Democrats — 48% versus 45% (though, in aggregate, the reverse tends to be true). Party affiliation is strongly linked with voting behavior.

• Party equipped to handle the most pressing problem: Forty-six percent of Americans believe the GOP is better equipped than the Democratic Party to handle what they consider the country’s most pressing problem, while 41% said the opposite. The top issues are the economy, immigration, the government and inflation. Historically, this measure has strongly been connected to election outcomes.

• National satisfaction: Just 22% of U.S. adults say they are satisfied with how things are going in the country. “Satisfaction levels this low have been associated with incumbent presidents losing their reelection bids in 1980 (19%), 1992 (22%) and 2020 (28%),” according to the report.

• Economic confidence: Forty-eight percent of Americans describe the economy as poor, while 22% describe it as good or excellent. These results place the Gallup Economic Confidence Index at -28. Such a negative score is moderately associated with the president’s party losing.

• Party better equipped to keep U.S. prosperous: Fifty percent of Americans say the Republican Party would be better at keeping the U.S. economically prosperous, while 44% said the same for the Democratic Party. In the past, the party with an advantage on this metric has won most of the time.

• Presidential job approval: President Joe Biden has a 39% approval rating, which is considerably below the approval rating of past presidents who went on to win reelection. However, since Biden dropped out and was replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris, this metric is of lesser importance, according to the report.

• Party favorability ratings: Forty-three percent of Americans say they have a favorable view of the Republican Party, while 42% say the same for the Democratic Party, meaning they are about tied.

• Party better able to keep America safe: Fifty-four percent Americans believe the Republican Party is “better able to keep the nation safe from terrorism and other international threats,” while 40% say the same for the Democratic Party.

• Beliefs on government activity: Fifty-five percent of Americans believe the government does too much, while 41% say it should do more to solve problems. These opinions don’t change much over time, so they have a weak relationship to electoral outcomes.

• Congressional job approval: The vast majority of Americans, 75%, disapprove of the job Congress is doing, while 20% approve. But, since Congress is closely divided between Republicans and Democrats, neither party holds an advantage in this measure.