Here’s what new polls show about the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

If the presidential election were a long-running game of chess, this past month has seen the board knocked over and the pieces reassembled.

On July 13, former President Donald Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally. Two days later, he declared Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate.

Less than a week later, President Joe Biden announced he would no longer seek re-election, and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Since then, the Democratic party has coalesced around her as the de-facto nominee, and she is in the process of choosing a running mate before the August convention.

So — with less than 100 days left until the November election — where do things stand in the dramatically reshaped race?

According to multiple recent national and swing state polls, Trump holds a slight lead, but it appears to be narrowing.

National polls

One of the first nationwide polls taken after Biden stepped down showed Harris slightly ahead of Trump.

She topped him by two points in a July 23 Reuters/Ipsos poll, which sampled 1,241 U.S. adults, though her lead was within the 3 percentage point margin of error. One week prior, the same poll had Biden down two points to Trump.

A July 25 New York Times/Siena poll similarly found that, by throwing her hat into the ring, Harris had narrowed the race with Trump. The poll — which sampled 1,142 registered voters and had a margin of error of 3.3 points — showed her trailing the former president by one point nationwide among likely voters.

Meanwhile, the same poll, taken when Biden was in the race, found him down six points against Trump.

A July 23 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found the same result, with Harris down one point against Trump among registered voters nationwide. The poll sampled 1,309 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of 3.2 points.

Swing state polls

Polls taken in swing states — which will likely determine the winner of the election — similarly show Harris improving upon Biden’s margins and now, in some cases, within striking distance of Trump.

Before Biden bowed out, battleground states appeared to be falling out of his reach, with him down against Trump in nine key states, according to a New York Times polling average. He trailed Trump by 7 points in Nevada and 4 points in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.

A July 25 Emerson College set of polls, taken after Harris entered the race, show her behind Trump in four swing states, but by narrow margins.

She was down by 5 points in Arizona, 2 in Georgia and Pennsylvania, and 1 in Michigan, according to the poll, which sampled 800 registered voters per state and had a margin of error of 3.3 points.

In Wisconsin, Harris and Trump were tied, both receiving 47% support.

And in a round of Fox News swing state polls released on July 26, Harris tied Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while trailing him by 1 point in Wisconsin, according to The Hill. The poll sampled 3,092 registered voters living in the three states and had a margin of error of 3 points.

Polling averages conducted by Nate Silver, a political statistician, also show the race narrowing in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since Biden dropped out.

When Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, Harris was down against Trump by about 5 points in Pennsylvania. Now, she is down less than 1 point, according to Silver’s polling average. Similarly, on July 21, Harris was down about 8 points against Trump in Georgia, whereas she is now down by about 4 points.

Harris remains an underdog in the race, Silver wrote in a post on X, “but much less of an underdog than Biden.”

What happens next?

It’s likely that Harris will continue closing in on Trump as she chooses a vice presidential nominee and takes the stage at the Democratic National Convention in August, David Barker, a professor of government at American University, told McClatchy News.

In the fall, after some of the excitement surrounding her new campaign dies down and Republican attacks against her ramp up, her numbers will likely “drop back down a little bit,” Barker said.

“But I suspect that on Election Day, she will be at least where she is now or perhaps even a little bit higher,” Barker added.

This story was originally published July 30, 2024 at 3:21 PM.