Would guilty verdict in Trump ‘hush money’ trial sway voters? What new poll found

The outcome of former President Donald Trump’s “hush money” trial — the first-ever criminal trial of an ex-president — will have little impact on voters, new polling suggests.

In a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National poll released May 30, 67% of respondents said their vote in November would not be affected if Trump is found guilty.

A smaller share of respondents said the guilty verdict would matter, with 17% saying that it would make them less likely to vote for Trump, and 15% saying it would make them more likely to vote for him.

The poll, conducted May 21-23, sampled 1,122 registered voters and has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

When broken down by partisan affiliation, 65% of Democrats, 64% of Republicans and 74% of independents all said a guilty verdict would not affect their vote.

Conversely, a majority of voters, 76%, said a not guilty verdict would not impact their vote in November. This included large majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents.

A smaller share said a not guilty verdict would matter, with 9% saying it would make them less inclined to vote for Trump and 14% saying it would make them more likely to do so.

The poll comes as the trial is nearing its conclusion, with the jury beginning deliberations May 29.

Trump, who has been charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records, could face years in prison if convicted on some or all counts, according to The New York Times. However, the judge could also impose a lighter sentence, such as probation.

Trump has maintained his innocence and has claimed the case is a “witch hunt” perpetrated by President Joe Biden’s administration.

This story was originally published May 30, 2024 at 12:49 PM.