Nonreligious people could outnumber Christians in the US by 2070, projection says
Christians in the United States might be outnumbered by nonreligious people over the next few decades, new projections show.
Using current trends in religion, Pew Research Center projects that the number of Christians in the United States could shrink from the 2020 level of 64% to between 35% and 54% by 2070. At the same time, nonreligious people could rise from their current 30% to somewhere between 34% and 52% of the United States’ population.
In every projection the center modeled, the percentage of the population subscribing to other religions, including Judaism, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism, grows from its current 6% to between 12% and 13%.
The Sept. 13 data models several hypothetical scenarios using decades of survey data from Pew Research Center and the General Social Survey, according to the center. The projections start with the U.S. population’s current religious composition before factoring in birth rates and migration patterns. They also rely on and incorporate rates of religious switching: the way that people move between categories of religious identity.
For example, data shows that roughly 31% of Christians become unaffiliated between the ages of 15 and 29, and an additional 7% do so after age 30, the center says.
Using these factors, the projections model what the religious landscape would look like in the future in three scenarios: if religious switching held steady, if religious switching continued speeding up as it has been since the 1990s or if it stopped altogether.
In every scenario, Christianity shrinks, including when religion-switching comes to a complete halt.
If the rate of religious switching holds steady, Christians will no longer hold a majority, but they will still be the largest religious group in 2070. If this rate speeds up, nonreligious people will become the largest group in the United States in 2070; if this speeding up coincides with a rise in disaffiliating Christians, nonreligious people will hold a majority in 2070.
Researchers suggest that nonreligious people becoming the largest group in the United States but without a majority seems most likely when compared with recent trends in religion.
