Historic number of storms churning in Atlantic at once as 2020 hurricane season rages
In one of the most historic hurricane seasons on record, five named tropical cyclones — weather systems that include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes — are simultaneously churning the warm waters of the Atlantic for just the second time in history.
The only other instance that many weather systems roamed the seas at once was when six tropical depressions or greater storms spawned in 1971, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, who specializes in the Atlantic Basin.
Tropical Storm Vicky formed Monday morning and joined Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm Teddy and Hurricane Sally, which intensified from a Tropical Storm Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said.
Sally is the 7th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.
“Only 6 years on record have had 7+ hurricanes by September 14: 1886, 1893, 1933, 1995, 2005 and 2012,” Klotzbach tweeted.
Vicky, expected to be short-lived with no threat of landfall, is the 20th named storm of the hurricane season and the 7th one this month. The current record for most named storms in a single season in the Atlantic stands at 28 — set in 2005, Klotzbach said.
The newest storm also paves the way for the use of Greek names for weather systems for the first time since 2005.
Names are assigned to storms in alphabetical order as they occur. If more storms break out than there are pre-prepared names, then new formations are named after the Greek alphabet starting with Alpha, Beta, Gamma and so on.
What’s more, Tropical Storm Vicky shatters another record for the earliest 20th named storm by three weeks, according to meteorologist Eric Holthaus.
Record breakers were expected
The barrage of record breakers this year isn’t totally unexpected. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted in May that 2020 would give life to an “above-normal” hurricane season, with the likelihood of 13 to 19 named storms.
But in August, NOAA announced that atmospheric and oceanic conditions “are primed to fuel storm development, leading to what could be an ‘extremely active’ season.”
“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted [Accumulated Cyclone Energy] range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.
NOAA’s new predictions included the likelihood of 19 to 25 named storms for the 2020 season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. NOAA says an average hurricane season produces 12 named storms — we’re at 20 — including six hurricanes, which the Atlantic has surpassed as of Sept. 14.
It’s important to note that NOAA’s storm predictions cannot forecast those that will make landfall. Landfalls can only be predicted within about a week of a storm reaching the coast because they’re “largely determined by short-term weather patterns,” according to NOAA.
Why is the 2020 hurricane season more active than usual?
This year’s storm cascade can be explained by several climate factors that favor above-average activity, including climate change.
For starters, the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have warmer-than-average temperatures due to an ongoing climate cycle called the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation that reappeared in 1995.
There’s also the possibility of a “La Niña” — Spanish for “little girl” — to develop in the months ahead. This weather pattern is known to bring cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, which would weaken wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, “allowing storms to develop and intensify,” NOAA says.
An “enhanced” west African monsoon, or a major wind system, increases the likelihood of a strong 2020 hurricane season, too, meteorologists say.
Global warming is also likely to blame, scientists say. Warmer temperatures pave the way for stronger more frequent storms.
This story was originally published September 14, 2020 at 2:14 PM.
