Trump’s frequent Miami visits may not stop Hispanic voter exodus | Opinion

It may be no mystery why President Trump has visited Miami three times over the past six weeks and gone more than half a dozen times to his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach so far this year: New polls show that Latino voters are abandoning him in record numbers nationwide, but to a lesser extent in Florida.

While Florida Hispanics are increasingly less enthusiastic about Trump — recently electing a Democratic mayor in Miami and flipping a Republican state Legislature seat in Trump’s own Palm Beach district — the state’s Latino population is still less opposed to Trump than in other parts of the country.

In South Florida, despite falling approval rates, Trump can still count on standing ovations to project a sense of popularity. In his latest visit to Miami, on April 11, he attended an Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) match during Vice President JD Vance’s high-stakes peace talks with Iran.

A new Latino Public Opinion Forum poll by Florida International University’s Latin American and Caribbean Center shows that Trump’s approval rate among Hispanics nationwide has fallen to 31%.

By comparison, Trump won the 2024 election with 46% to 48% of the Latino vote, according to exit polls.

“There has been a surprising erosion of the Latino vote for Trump over the past 14 months,” says Eduardo Gamarra, who led the national poll of 1,054 Hispanic adults. About 67% of Latinos nationwide now disapprove of the president’s job performance, the poll shows.

“The main concern of Hispanic voters is the economy, which was precisely the issue that got Trump elected in 2024,” Gamarra told me.

Trump’s job performance disapproval rate among Latinos is 76% in Arizona, 72% in California and 71% in Texas. Florida is more resilient at 54%, largely because Trump still enjoys 53% support among the state’s Cuban-Americans.

Gamarra noted that the poll was taken shortly before the start of the Iran war. If it were taken today, Trump’s numbers would likely be worse because of the rise in gasoline prices, he said.

Other recent polls of Latino voters show similar troubling signs for Republicans as the November mid-term elections approach.

A new nationwide survey by Somos Votantes finds only 30% of likely Latino voters say they support Trump. That’s up to an 18% drop from Trump’s Hispanic vote in the 2024 elections, which pundits say was decisive to help him return to the White House.

Referring to the November mid-terms, Somos Votantes said that “Trump is a significant electoral liability, with deeply negative ratings on every measure — and his worst numbers on the economy.”

Melissa Morales, president of the group, said in statement that “our data shows that the cost of living isn’t just an issue — it’s the verdict.”

Still, neither Gamarra nor the Somos Votantes organizers believe this dissatisfaction will automatically trigger a Democratic landslide in November.

While Democrats enjoy a 15% partisan advantage in most states, “the data also makes clear that Democrats have not secured a victory in November,” the Somos Votantes survey said. Democrats are vulnerable on government waste, crime and fiscal credibility, which means that “Latino voters are demanding their support to be earned,” it added.

Democrats still trail on crime and safety, where a slim majority of Latinos trust Republicans more, as well as in efforts to root out government waste.

Surprisingly, a significant 44% of Latino voters support deportations, even as 70% of those surveyed oppose ICE tactics. On foreign policy, polls show that the biggest priority for Latinos is combatting drug trafficking and organized crime.

“Roughly half of Latino voters also express concern that Democrats prioritize issues disconnected from families’ economic reality,” the Somos Votantes study said.

The message of these polls for Democrats is clear: if they stick to affordability issues and stay away from some progressive gender and cultural issues that alienate religious Hispanic voters, they have a good chance of winning Congress in November. And if Democrats pick a moderate candidate for 2028, they can win the White House.

The message for Republicans? If they continue to back Trump’s claims that the economy is doing great, fail to criticize the president’s memes playfully depicting himself as Jesus and keep justifying violent ICE arrests of legal asylum seekers, they are almost guaranteed to continue losing the Hispanic vote — and probably the next election.

Don’t miss the program “Oppenheimer Presenta” on Sunday nights on CNN en Español, or on the YouTube channel “Oppenheimer Presenta.” Blog: andresoppenheimer.com