Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado should return home — now | Opinion

At the start of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, I dared to predict in this column that the biggest winner would be Venezuela’s interim dictator, Delcy Rodriguez. A new economic report forecasting a massive rise in Venezuela’s oil income this year makes me even more convinced of it.

The study, by Venezuelan economist Asdrúbal Oliveros, projects that Venezuela’s economy is likely to grow by a whopping 12% this year. The reasons: President Trump’s easing of key U.S. oil sanctions on Venezuela and the spike in global oil prices since the Iran war began.

“Venezuela’s economy is showing signs of a remarkable breakthrough,” Oliveros wrote in AmericasQuarterly.org. “Production has risen to more than 1 million barrels per day and is expected to keep increasing in the coming months, supported by joint ventures with Chevron, Repsol, Eni and Maurel & Prom.”

Although the projected growth would only begin to reverse an economic decline of more than 20 years, Venezuela would be one of Latin America’s fastest growing economies this year. The region as a whole is projected to grow by only 2.3%, according to the World Bank.

Venezuela’s economic rebound began almost immediately after the Jan. 3 U.S. raid that captured former dictator Nicolás Maduro and replaced him with Rodríguez, his former vice-president. She was a long-time participant in the Maduro regime’s brutal repression.

Yet, since Maduro’s capture, Trump has called Rodríguez a “terrific person” and a “friend and partner.”

While Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for free elections once the country is stabilized and its economy starts recovering, Trump — who ultimately calls the shots — is showing no hurry to restore democratic freedoms.

When Trump talks about Venezuela, he talks about oil and, occasionally, drugs. He almost never mentions the word “democracy.”

Trump is increasingly citing the Venezuelan status quo as a major accomplishment and a possible model for Iran. That’s despite the fact that the Rodríguez regime has yet to allow fundamental freedoms and still holds nearly 500 political prisoners, according to the Foro Penal human rights group.

Speaking to reporters on April 6, Trump said, “Venezuela has worked out so incredibly. We have 100 million barrels of oil right now in Houston being refined. It’s been great. The relationship with Venezuela has been fantastic. It might be beyond long-term.”

To be sure, polls show that most Venezuelans — both inside and outside the country — applaud the U.S. capture of Maduro.

Also, opposition leader and Nobel Peace laureate Maria Corina Machado remains much more popular than Rodríguez, according to a February poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg.

However, several former U.S. diplomats and academics told me that as the economy recovers, time will be against the Venezuelan opposition leader.

While many described the 12% economic growth forecast as too optimistic, most agreed that there will be a partial economic recovery, which will clearly benefit the Rodríguez regime.

Brian Naranjo, a former State Department official who served in Venezuela and publishes a newsletter on Venezuelan affairs, told me that with Machado abroad, Rodríguez is essentially running a solo presidential campaign.

He added, “Every day that Maria Corina Machado is outside the country is a day that Delcy [Rodríguez] can consolidate and strengthen herself to stay in power. This is why I really think it’s imperative that Machado get back to Venezuela as quickly as possible.”

John Polga-Hecimovich, a professor at the U.S. Naval Academy who specializes in Latin American politics, says Rodriguez is betting that, with an economic recovery, there will also be less pressure from the Trump administration to hold elections. Trump wants, above all, economic stability in Venezuela and oil, he explains.

“Delcy Rodriguez won’t leave if she’s not forced to do so,” Polga-Hecimovich told me. “She’s not a small-d Democrat. She never believed in elections. She never believed in democracy. Why would she suddenly believe in them now?”

She knows that Trump has a short attention span, he continued. “She’s hoping that Trump loses interest, that he goes and invades Cuba, that he gets mired in another conflict in the Middle East, that he bombs Mexico or invades Panama” and then moves on to his next thing, he said.

I agree. Machado was right to play to Trump’ s ego when she presented him with her Nobel certificate and lavished him with praise to stay in the game.

But to avoid becoming irrelevant in her country, she should ignore Trump’s advice to delay her return home.

She has proven to be a woman of tremendous courage. She should take the first flight to Caracas, or sneak into the country by land. If she’s arrested, she will force Trump to publicly side with the forces of democracy and set a timetable for elections.

Don’t miss the program “Oppenheimer Presenta” on Sunday nights on CNN en Español, or on the YouTube channel “Oppenheimer Presenta.” Blog: andresoppenheimer.com