Predictions of China’s rise and America’s demise in 2022 were wrong — at least for now | Opinion

The year 2022 may go down in history as the year in which the United States got a second wind, as its main rivals on the world stage suffered serious setbacks.

Just a year ago, the conventional wisdom was that China would soon surpass the United States as the world’s first economic and technological superpower, and Russia and Iran would continue to gain clout internationally at the expense of American influence.

Domestically, there were dire predictions about the future of America’s democracy.

Polls suggested that far-right candidates who refused to accept former President Donald Trump’s 2020 electoral defeat would win the U.S. midterm elections, gain control of vote-counting institutions and manipulate future U.S. elections at their will.

None of that has happened. On the contrary, China ‘s economy has tanked to record lows in recent decades, while dictator Xi Jinping has been facing street protests not seen since the Tiananmen Square demonstrations in 1989.

Russia’s economy has been crippled after its disastrous invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. and European sanctions that followed, and is expected to shrink by 3.3% this year. Russia’s standing in the world has also taken an unprecedented hit after 143 countries condemned its invasion of Ukraine at the U.N. General Assembly, while only five nations supported it.

Iran’s Islamic fundamentalist regime is facing its biggest anti-government demonstrations in recent memory. At least 326 people have been killed in the protests, human rights groups say.

Meanwhile, consider what has been happening in the United States. The vast majority of Trump-supported election deniers were defeated in the November elections. Chances of a constitutional breakdown in the 2024 elections have greatly diminished.

The U.S. dollar has strengthened against almost all world currencies. I was in London and Madrid recently and could dine at pretty good restaurants for about half what I would pay in comparable places in Miami.

Unemployment remains low, and while the U.S. stock market is down and inflation is high as a result of the lingering effects of the pandemic, the economy is doing better than those of most other parts of the world.

Technologically, the U.S. Department of Energy has just announced a historic scientific breakthrough in nuclear fusion, which will allow production of clean energy that could replace fossil fuels in the future.

U.S.-made COVID-19 vaccines became the world’s gold standard for fighting the pandemic and quickly replaced Chinese and Russian vaccines as the most coveted by other countries.

The U.S. government, meantime, passed the largest clean energy law in U.S. history and the biggest infrastructure law in generations. The latter will fund the rebuilding of roads and bridges, and vastly expand access to high-speed internet.

The U.S. image improved in the world in 2022, according to a Pew Center poll. While it was at all-time lows in many countries in 2020, it now has risen to a 61% favorable rating in the 17 countries that were surveyed.

Scott Galloway, the best-selling author and economics professor at New York University, told me in a recent interview that “America will remain the preeminent superpower” in the short and medium term.

“The U.S. is food independent, it’s energy independent. The dollar is at record highs, and employment seems to be pretty strong,” Galloway told me. “So, while we may be the fastest tortoise, it’s hard to point to another country that is doing better right now than America.”

Indeed, China’s economy is expected to grow by only 3.2% this year, a far cry from the near 10% annual growth rates it had in recent decades.

China’s Heng Seng stock market index fell by 36% during the first 10 months this year — about a third of its value, far more than the U.S. stock market. Major multinationals, like Apple, have announced they are moving some of their factories from China to India and Vietnam.

Granted, America continues to face big troubles at home. There may be a recession next year, mass shootings and hate crimes continue to rise, and political infighting may paralyze Washington. Also, no big world powers last forever, and the United States won’t be the exception.

But a dispassionate look at the state of the world shows that, as 2022 comes to a close, the United States finds itself in a much better position than its rivals. China may still become the world’s biggest superpower in the future, but it won’t happen anytime soon.

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This story was originally published December 16, 2022 at 1:21 PM.