Florida COVID cases on the rise after a three month decline. Counties see boom in last week.
New COVID-19 cases were on the decline for more than three months in Florida before they began to rise again, but a new trend has been brewing since Thanksgiving, according to Miami Herald calculations of the Florida Department of Health’s weekly report.
For the last three weeks, weekly cumulative cases have been rising by the thousands, according to Herald calculations. Cases began to creep upwards, especially in South Florida counties, before a boom this week.
The week of Nov. 26 to Dec. 2 ended a 13-week decline in the amount of new weekly cases added to Florida’s toll.
That week saw 10,663 resident cases, up from 8,892 the week before, which would mark the end of the decline of new cases, Herald calculations show. The week after, Dec. 3 to Dec. 9, saw 12,984 cumulative resident cases added, a step-up from the week before.
Then cases skyrocketed this week, Dec. 10 to 16, when the state saw 28,841 new cases, more than double the week before.
Researchers say cases won’t die down soon, but will instead accelerate.
University of Florida researchers project the omicron variant will lead to about 40,000 new COVID cases a day in Florida by its February apex, around 75 percent higher than what the state saw during the delta variant peak.
Four different scenarios were created and the one constant was omicron will slowly grow through December, rapidly in January 2022 and peak in February.
South Florida counties see similar rise in cases
Miami-Dade County only saw a 12-week decline in cases before this recent increase. Weekly cumulative case totals have been steadily on the rise for the past three weeks, since the week of Nov. 26 to Dec. 2, when 1,985 new cases were reported.
This week, Miami-Dade saw a total of 11,543 new resident cases, a more than quadruple increase from the week before when only 2,657 were reported, according to Herald calculations.
Broward, Palm Beach and Manatee counties saw a similar trend: Three weeks of increases starting the week after Thanksgiving with a boom in cases from last week to this week.
Broward went from an increase of 1,448 cumulative cases to 4,705 in a week. Palm Beach went from 894 to 2,384 new cases. Manatee going from 200 to 228.
Monroe County, being a markedly smaller county than neighboring Miami-Dade and Broward, was an outlier. While there wasn’t a steady increase in the last three weeks, there was a boom this week. The county went from 59 new cumulative weekly cases to 105.
Omicron and the rise
It is unclear what role the highly contagious omicron variant plays in this latest increase of cases.
Jason Salemi, an associate professor of epidemiologist at the University of South Florida, has told the Miami Herald that data may underestimate the prevalence of omicron’s circulation.
“The best explanation for these pronounced increases is a rapidly spreading omicron variant, and I would anticipate increasing cases, test positivity, and prevalence of the omicron lineages in the coming weeks.”
This story was originally published December 18, 2021 at 9:38 AM.
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