Gathering for New Year’s Eve? See COVID risk levels in your county with this map
Coronavirus infections are surging in nearly every state across the country, overwhelming hospitals as the holiday season continues to bring people together.
With New Year’s Eve around the corner, it’s important to assess how risky it is to gather with others, especially if celebrations involve visitors traveling from other states.
An interactive map developed by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology calculates the chances that at least one person is infected with coronavirus at gatherings of different sizes in each U.S. county.
“These rates are updated daily as a means to visualize the risk associated with gatherings,” the researchers wrote in their study published Nov. 9 in the journal Nature Human Behavior. “The website provides data-driven information to help individuals and policy makers make prudent decisions (for example, increasing mask-wearing compliance and avoiding larger gatherings) that could help control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, particularly in hard-hit regions.”
Users can select an “event size” anywhere from 10 to 5,000 people and watch as the map changes color based on risk level. Light yellow areas have risk levels below 1%, while dark red regions have risk levels above 99%.
Hovering over individual counties will reveal your chances of contracting COVID-19, according to the study.
The map combines documented coronavirus cases at the county level and data from antibody test results, which reveal more infections than reported by state health departments.
For that reason, the researchers assume there are five times more cases than are being reported, but they note that “in places with less testing availability, that bias may be higher.”
As of Dec. 30, Texas, Tennessee, California and Oklahoma appear to have the most red-colored counties no matter the event size.
Several counties have risk levels above 90% for gatherings with 20 people, including Bent and Crowley counties in Colorado, Lassen County in California and Alfalfa County in Oklahoma.
Events with 50 people cause the majority of the map to bleed mostly red-colored counties.
That’s because large gatherings that take place indoors are cesspools for viral spread and have been linked to large outbreaks of the coronavirus, experts say. Taking celebrations outdoors, asking guests to wear masks and keeping at least a 6-foot distance between attendees is the safest way to ring in the new year during the pandemic.
A November study found that reducing indoor maximum capacity in spaces such as gyms, hotels, cafes, religious centers and restaurants by 20% could cut down new infections by about 80%, McClatchy News reported.
“By integrating real-time information aggregated via state health departments nationwide along with a simple statistical model, the website is able to capture, calculate and disseminate information relevant to decision-making by the public that could help reduce risk and new transmission,” the researchers wrote in their study.
“Precisely because of under-testing and the risk of exposure and infection, these risk calculations provide further support for the ongoing need for social distancing and protective measures. Such precautions are still needed even in small events, given the large number of circulating cases,” they said on their website.
This story was originally published December 30, 2020 at 11:30 AM.
