Fact check: There’s no evidence Florida is ‘protecting the vulnerable’ from COVID-19
Gov. Ron DeSantis’ office responded to Florida’s rising COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations with a tweet on Sunday by the governor’s spokesperson saying that Floridians should “keep calm and carry on” even as many public health experts raise concerns over the looming Thanksgiving holiday.
The governor’s spokesman, Fred Piccolo Jr., wrote on Twitter: “Almost 150,000 Covid tests yesterday. 7.5% positivity rate. Still under 10%. Washing hands. Social distancing. Protect the elderly. Don’t lockdown. Keep calm and carry on. ICU capacity is at 30% available statewide. Hospitals are NOT overrun.”
The phrase “protect the vulnerable” is a familiar refrain from the DeSantis administration. It’s key to the governor’s reasoning for pursuing a policy designed to allow the virus to spread largely unchecked among younger people.
But there’s no evidence the vulnerable are being protected from the novel virus as it continues to move through the state. Daily cases reported by the state are up about 150% from where they were on Oct. 1, and cases for those 65 and older are up about 140% in that same time period, said Jason Salemi, a biostatistician and professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa.
“Cases are on the rise in vulnerable populations,” Salemi said Monday morning. “And we know what happens next.”
There are many people under the age of 65 vulnerable to the virus as well, some due to underlying conditions and others for as-yet unknown reasons, Salemi pointed out, but age remains one of the most reliable predictors of severe illness and death.
Since the beginning of the pandemic through the end of September, one out of every 12 people between the ages of 65 and 79 who tested positive for COVID-19 in the state of Florida died, Salemi said. For people 80 years old or older, it’s one out of every four.
“That’s why I get scared when I see these epidemic curves rising [in older age groups],” Salemi said, “because I know a non-trivial portion of those cases are likely to have severe outcomes, including death.”
Salemi only looked at cases prior to October because deaths are usually reported to state databases days or weeks after they occur.
In an email to the Miami Herald, Piccolo responded to questions about rising cases in older age groups by citing an AARP report from earlier this month showing that Florida is below the national average in nursing home resident fatalities as well as resident cases and staff cases in recent weeks.
“Any uptick amongst the most vulnerable population is a cause of concern,” Piccolo said. “There are a myriad of possible reasons, however, the most likely is that people are visiting their grandparents again.”
Florida may be behind the national average but, in spite of that, the AARP report also shows that in the four weeks ending Oct. 18, 61% of all nursing homes in Florida had a staff member test positive for COVID-19. A single confirmed staff case means the home is not eligible to have indoor visitors because, according to the governor’s policy, the home must be COVID-free among staff and residents for 14 days to be open to visitors. The report did not address assisted living facilities.
Contact tracing falling short
Testing is only effective in preventing community spread if people can be isolated after they have tested positive and those they have been exposed have been notified and monitored. That’s why public health officials advocate for a robust contact tracing program.
However, DOH does not report the size of its contact tracing workforce, how many cases it has attempted to reach and how many contacts were reached successfully. Other than nursing homes, which have received priority for tests and other resources from health officials, efforts by the state government to trace and isolate the contacts of older Floridians who are exposed to the virus have faltered.
During the week of Sept. 25, for example, the Florida Department of Health’s contact tracing program in Miami-Dade County interviewed only 49% of the 216 people ages 65 and older within two days after they had been in contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19, according to health department documents provided to the county and obtained by the Miami Herald.
Three weeks later on Oct. 16, the agency had only slightly improved its record, having reached only 53% of the 254 people over age 65 in Miami-Dade who had been exposed to someone with COVID-19. To be successful, studies show that 80% of contacts must be reached within two days.
Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber, who has been advocating for a stronger contact tracing program for months, said the state’s failure to find an effective way to educate people to respond when contacted has been a missed opportunity to save lives.
“You can’t protect our seniors if you’re not protecting anyone,’’ he said. “It was an afterthought at best. It was initially woefully understaffed so when the summer surge came [COVID] spread like wildfire, finding our seniors the way water seeks the path of least resistance. They have done nothing to educate the public on the importance of cooperating when called, and failed to implement the best practices from other places, like New York. It’s been an absolute joke but it’s not funny because people died.“
This story was originally published November 16, 2020 at 5:01 PM.
