What exactly does Phase 2 mean? Experts say it is not coming soon in South Florida

All counties in Florida except Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach went into Phase 2 on June 5. Since then, the state has become the COVID epicenter of the world.

While most establishments have reopened to some extent in South Florida, Miami-Dade schools won’t reopen unless the county is in Phase 2. And some local experts say the county will not reach this designation anytime soon either.

Palm Beach County School Board members have already said students will likely begin their school year online next month. Distance learning is also expected to continue in Broward.

National guidelines for reopening states are a 14-day consecutive decline in positive cases. Is this coming soon?

Infectious disease expert Dr. Chad Sanborn doesn’t think so.

“The cases really haven’t even started to dip a whole lot here in South Florida,” said Sanborn, who works at in KIDZ Medical Services in West Palm Beach. “So in theory, it would be great to have kids in school for many reasons. However, I think with the cases still plateauing or on the increase at the moment, I do not believe that’s a feasible plan.”

The risks of greater openings in South Florida could mean a shortage of tests, longer turnaround time for test results, difficulty contact tracing and a dramatic increase in COVID-positive patients, he said. Some of the effects, such as long-term lung damage, that the coronavirus could have on patients aren’t even known yet and it would be dangerous to put more students and their families at this risk.

“As much as we want to be able to return to normal, I don’t think this is the appropriate time in South Florida for that,” he said. “We’re still far from having this under control.”

On a July 13 press conference, county doctors called the county’s situation “extremely grave” and said Miami-Dade is in the condition that Wuhan, China, was in six months ago.

Even hospital staff are concerned that they will soon be at capacity with resources spread thin.

Phase 2 means further opening of several venues — many of which are already open — with social distancing and sanitation. These include restaurants, bars, gyms, retail establishments, museums, libraries, organized youth activities, entertainment businesses, barber shops and salons.

Municipal mayors can issue more restrictive orders for their jurisdictions than county orders.

Even without reaching Phase 2, the area has had record-breaking COVID-19 cases. Florida had 15,300 new cases on July 12 — higher than any other state has had in a single day. The previous Florida high was 11,458, reported on July 4, and the previous nationwide high was 12,274 in New York on April 4.

On July 14, the state announced 132 new coronavirus-caused deaths, bringing the statewide death toll to 4,409.

County Mayor Carlos Gimenez said on July 13 that he is resisting further closures in his jurisdiction despite these numbers, adding that he wanted to see if existing restrictions lowered COVID rates before ordering more. In contrast, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said on Tuesday that if things don’t improve in the next couple of weeks, there would be “a significant amount of pressure” to shut down the county at some level.

“It’s tiring for staff, it’s a psychological toll for families, for pediatricians, for us in the hospitals,” KIDZ Medical Services’ Sanborn said. “Obviously we don’t want to see more cases, but that doesn’t seem to be occurring anywhere here in South Florida.”

This story was originally published July 15, 2020 at 2:54 PM.