When have this many Americans filed for unemployment? Maybe never, records show
The coronavirus has forced bars, restaurants, retailers and schools to close as officials look for ways to stop the swell of cases, forcing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work.
Economists have said that number could balloon into the millions by theend of March.
If unemployment is a key indicator of a country’s economy, according to The Balance, how do these figures compare to historic moments of economic turmoil in the United States? And what do they tell us?
Unemployment during the coronavirus pandemic
During the second week of March, the U.S. Department of Labor reported 281,000 people filed for unemployment — about 70,000 more than the week before.
That 33% increase was bigger “than anything the U.S. labor market saw during the Great Recession,” according to U.S. News World & Report.
Now economists with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are predicting the number of filings could reach between 2.25 and 3 million for the week ending March 21.
Unemployment during previous recessions
The number of Americans filing for unemployment since the 1960s, while varying dramatically, has never climbed into the millions, according to data compiled by the DOL.
During the oil crisis recession in 1975, DOL data shows upwards of 500,000 people were filing for unemployment on a weekly basis. The unemployment rate climbed to around 8% at the time, according to The Balance and Investopedia.
Less than a decade later amid the energy crisis recession in the early 1980s, unemployment numbers climbed well into the 600,000 on any given week, statistics show.
Filings reached the highest level on record of 695,000 in October 1982, according to the DOL, and the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
When the stock market collapsed in 2008, hurling the U.S. into the Great Recession, the number of Americans filing for unemployment spiked again — this time to 665,000 in March 2009, according to the DOL.
It was the “most severe economic downturn in the United States since the Great Depression,” BLS later said.
The bureau reported a peak unemployment rate of 10% in October 2009.
Unemployment as COVID-19 numbers grow
According to U.S. News World & Report, the 281,000 figure and 33 percent jump that DOL reported for the week of March 8-14 is “expected to be among the worst in modern history.”
If the number of people filing for unemployment continues at the current pace, a senior U.S. Reserve official told Bloomberg the unemployment rate could hit 30 percent.
Unemployment peaked at 25% during the Great Depression.
CNN Business reported that filings climbing into the millions by the end of March is expected given the “surge in layoffs” as airlines, hotels and sporting events are hit with a dip in revenue.
“Although it’s possible unemployment claims slowed down later in the week, even a conservative estimate suggests more than 1 million people filed initial jobless claims this week — more than the highest level on record of 695,000 in the week ending October 2, 1982,” CNN reported, citing Goldman Sachs economists.
