‘We are not prepared.’ Coronavirus surge a time bomb for US hospitals, experts warn

As U.S. hospitals brace for an expected surge in coronavirus cases, experts worry they lack enough capacity, especially ICU beds and ventilators, to handle the crisis, The New York Times reports.

“We are anticipating a massive surge of patients over the next few weeks,” said Dr. Jane Jenab, a Denver emergency room doctor, CBS News reported. “And we are not prepared.”

Hospitals across the nation could soon reach capacity unless aggressive efforts to curb the spread of the COVID-19 virus succeed, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The United States has 6,146 hospitals with 924,107 beds, about 98,000 of which can be used for intensive care, according to the American Hospital Association. But as many as 2.9 million ICU beds might be needed in a pandemic, some estimates say.

“You can’t argue with numbers,” said Dr. Robert Winters, an infectious disease specialist, the Los Angeles Times reported. “It’s a potential brewing time bomb.”

‘People will die’ if hospitals are overwhelmed

A Harvard Global Health Institute study shows hospitals serving 40 percent of the United States will run out of beds under even a moderate estimate of potential cases — even if they cleared their beds of all other patients, The New York Times reports.

And an earlier U.S. government report estimating hospital needs during a potential flu pandemic says from 200,000 to 2.9 million ICU beds might be needed, USA Today reports.

Ventilators for critically ill COVID-19 patients also might run out, with a 2010 survey finding just over 62,000 on hand, according to the publication.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York said Wednesday that in 45 days the state could need up to 110,000 hospital beds and 37,000 ventilators, CBS News reported. It currently has 53,000 beds and 3,000 ventilators.

The U.S. Navy plans to deploy a hospital ship to New York Harbor to free hospital beds by treating trauma patients, Business Insider reports. A second hospital ship based in San Diego, California, also will be deployed to hard-hit areas.

China and other nations have increased hospital capacity by hastily building new facilities, and medical supply companies are ramping up ventilator production. But will it be enough?

“If we don’t make substantial changes, both in spreading the disease over time and expanding capacity, we’re going to run out of hospital beds,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, The New York Times reported.

“And in that instance, we will not be able to take care of critically ill people, and people will die,” Jha said, according to the publication.

Coronavirus a national emergency

The virus, first reported in China, has swept across Asia and now has sparked new outbreaks in Europe and the United States.

Nearly 312,000 cases of the COVID-19 virus have been confirmed worldwide with more than 13,400 deaths as of March 22, according to Johns Hopkins University. The United States has more than 26,000 confirmed cases with more than 340 deaths.

The World Health Organization has declared the COVID-19 virus a global pandemic. In the United States, President Donald Trump has declared the outbreak a national emergency.

Doctors may face ‘really hard decisions’

In Italy, which has had more than 31,500 confirmed cases and more than 2,500 deaths, doctors have had to ration ICU beds and ventilators, leaving some patients at risk of death in efforts to save others, The Washington Post reported. Hospitals in Iran and China have faced similar choices.

“These are really hard decisions,” said George L. Anesi, a critical care specialist at the University of Pennsylvania, according to the publication. “In a public health emergency, you shift from a focus on individual patients to how society as a whole benefits, and that’s a big change from usual care.”

U.S. health and government officials warn doctors here may face the same kinds of decisions if people don’t take steps to curb the spread of coronavirus with quarantines and self-isolation.

“We are looking at a new war no one has seen before,” Cuomo said, The Washington Post reported. “It is only a matter of time before ICU beds are full.”

Rural communities at greatest risk

The gravest problems may come in rural communities, CNN reported.

“Who’s at risk? Elderly, low-income, people with high health needs. That is rural America,” said Alan Morgan, chief executive officer of the National Rural Health Association, according to the network.

“You have a high proportion of low income, elderly people with high health needs so if you were to have a cluster in a rural community it would turn bad quickly,” he said, CNN reported.

Personnel shortages also a danger

Along with beds and ventilators, hospitals also need physicians, nurses, respiratory therapists and other health-care workers — not to mention cleaning crews and other employees. They’re all at risk for contracting coronavirus, too.

“If the health care team starts dwindling because of positive health care tests, that will become problematic,” said Timothy Myers, a respiratory therapist and chief business officer of the American Association for Respiratory Care, USA Today reported.

Even without the risk of contracting the COVID-19 virus, health care workers can only work for so long under crushing loads of critically ill patients, doctors say.

“Part of it is just exhausting our personnel,” said Dr. David Hill, a pulmonary critical care physician and a spokesperson for the American Lung Association, CNN reported. “Health care is complicated and people make mistakes when they’re overworked.”

Flattening the curve

The key to avoiding disaster in U.S. hospitals is flattening the curve of new coronavirus cases, chiefly through social distancing, quarantines and shelter-in-place orders, CNN reported.

“I still really get the impression people in many places aren’t taking this seriously,” said Dr. Sanjay Gupta, according to the network. “And I think that’s a problem.”

“The thing that we keep hearing over and over again, this inflection point, trying to decrease the number of cases and make sure they don’t turn into a situation like they’ve seen in Italy, is people have to social distance,” Gupta said, CNN reported. “They’re not doing it.”

Many experts say insufficient testing in the United States early in the pandemic makes it difficult to know what lies ahead.

“We don’t know how many cases we are going to see in the next days or weeks,” said Otto Yang, an infectious disease expert at UCLA, the Los Angeles Times reported.

This story was originally published March 18, 2020 at 12:52 PM with the headline "‘We are not prepared.’ Coronavirus surge a time bomb for US hospitals, experts warn."