Price Shock: Gas to Groceries
Broadcast Retirement Network's Jeffrey Snyder discusses recent inflation numbers and the impact of armed conflict on food prices with Texas A&M University's David Anderson, PhD.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Three, two, one. David Anderson from the, excuse me, three, two, one. David Anderson joins me this morning.
He is with Texas A&M University. Dr. Anderson, great to see you. Thanks for joining us this morning.
David Anderson, PhD., Texas A&M University
Hey, great to see you too. Glad to be with you.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Yeah, it's good to see you. I know you just came back from a little vacation, so it's always a pleasure. But I know that you, even when you're away, even on the weekends, you're looking at key economic data.
Wanted to check in with you. How are we doing in terms of inflation and some of the food prices that we've seen over the last few months?
David Anderson, PhD., Texas A&M University
Well, you know, we recently had another CPI report come out, the ones that come out monthly. And again, it showed an increase in prices that measured inflation. And you know, the big jump was in energy, as I think we'd all expect, really since this war with Iran.
We, you know, look at what you've seen at the pump, whether it's gas or diesel, they have skyrocketed. And that showed up in the data very clearly. You know, I do more livestock and meat-related things.
If we look at meat prices, you know, actually compared to a year ago, both pork and chicken prices were lower than a year ago. So we've seen some declines there in terms of that retail prices that are reported. The beef side actually came down just a little bit from the month before, but it's still, you know, double-digit percent higher than last year.
So on the meat side, there's some relief. We had lower egg prices too. You know, we've talked about that a lot, but, you know, beef remains stubbornly high and is going to be, I think, for a while, but there's some relief on the others.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Yeah, and that's good. Let's talk a little bit more about these fuel prices and how does that translate, you know, knowing that there's a blockade going on in the Straits of Hormuz that has an impact on oil and gas prices. We've seen them skyrocket, and that's what translates into, potentially translates into higher gasoline prices here, domestically and around the world.
How does that add, what, does that add a great percentage to the cost of food that we see at the grocery store and at restaurants?
David Anderson, PhD., Texas A&M University
Well, it's certainly part of the overall prices, and given kind of time lags in the economy, I would suspect we haven't seen the full effect of that yet in terms of prices. You know, everything we consume, food-wise, it's getting from point A to point B, from where it's produced to where we are as customers buying it. And that's going to add to the costs all the way through the system.
And again, there's time lag, so I expect that we'll see some more effects of that. But really, everything is dependent on getting those goods around, and that's going to be more costly. And so, you know, really from a food price standpoint, then it's going to depend on the ability of both grocery stores and restaurants to be able to pass those costs on.
Will they be able to, for us as consumers, to pass those on? Us consumers, you know, continue to buy the same amount, to buy the same things. And I think that's the other place where we can think of higher fuel prices hitting the economy.
The other part is what I might consider on the demand side. You know, as we spend more and more of our income on gasoline or diesel fuel to get around, that's money we can't spend on something else, in food, clothing, everything else in the economy. So we've got a cost side increase in prices, and then we've got an income effect or a disposable income effect on all of our wallets.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Let me ask you about the Fed, not about how it was or why it was constructed, but let me ask you about this inflation print. Is the expectation that the Fed would leave interest rates the same, or would it look to cut if inflation remains stubbornly high as a result of this, or is it kind of a wait and see?
David Anderson, PhD., Texas A&M University
Well, you know, guesses as to what they're going to do are kind of all around. But as this affects inflation, you know, their mandate to try to have price stability and try to manage these things, these outside events that happen that can drive inflation, typically to stop, to reduce those overall price levels, we think about higher rates to slow the economy, to slow that pressure for higher prices, almost from a demand side, we can think about. Yet some of this is going to be coming from the cost side, that basic cost.
So, you know, I tend to expect maybe some more holding steady rather than cutting. You know, cutting rates can be inflationary as well. And so, you know, I think they're trying to grapple with these outside events, really hitting the energy sector more than anything else.
And how do you, you know, what do you do to try to manage that and try to reduce inflation? So it's a tough job.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Yeah, it's not one that I would want, but apparently there's a nominee up for to replace Jerome Powell. I guess these would be questions if I were a senator in those nomination hearings, I'd want to ask about it. And I'm sure that we will see that kind of unfold.
David Anderson, PhD., Texas A&M University
David, you know, I think it's worth, if you don't mind, I think it's worth remembering something else too, that, you know, the Fed, the Fed can have an influence on those short term rates. You know, long term rates, you know, we think of 30 year mortgages, we think of the T-bills and things with much longer terms on it. Those are market determined interest rates.
That's what, that's the interest you have to pay to borrow money. And those loaning money, there are risks in those longer term rates as well. And so those are very much market determined.
And so I think it just highlights that the tools that the Fed have are relatively, you know, imprecise and there's time lags. And, you know, that overall market and expectations of inflation longer term are very important in what happens for rates.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
If I could, David, excuse me, Dr. Anderson, if I could just transition, I want to ask you about tariffs. Well, you know, you've earned a degree and I feel like actually, candidly, Dr. Anderson, I feel like I'm in one of your graduate students in one of your classes. So I feel like I'm getting some private lessons.
But let me ask you about tariffs. I think the Supreme Court supported or affirmed the, kind of the, or rebutted the tariffs that were put in place last year. Now, you know, small businesses have been under a lot of stress.
Now there's an opportunity to kind of get refunds of the tariffs collected. How do you think that's going to unfold in this kind of quasi, you know, we've got the naval blockade, all the other things that are going on?
David Anderson, PhD., Texas A&M University
You know, I think it's just one more thing to kind of throw on this pile that's causing more and more uncertainty. You know, ultimately, when we talk about tariffs, you know, it's companies that pay the tariff, that they're importing the product, they pay the tariff. But ultimately, us consumers pay those higher prices.
And, you know, does any of that filter back to us consumers? You know, who knows? It's, and will they even get that tariff relief or, you know, I think that's still kind of an up in the air question.
That's just going to continue to kind of percolate along.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Yeah. Last question for you, Dr. Anderson. In terms of the overall economic health, I mean, you ask an economist, who was it, LBJ, that said he always wanted a one armed economist, right?
Because economists are notorious for saying on the other hand, I don't know. I think it was Truman.
David Anderson, PhD., Texas A&M University
It was Truman? It sounds like something Harry Truman would say versus LBJ.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
LBJ would probably give it to the economists. But let me ask you about the overall health of the economy, because we saw the stock market bounce back because of the news in last week with regards to the war, bounce back close to all time highs. But from where you sit as an economist, as a macro economist, is the economy still healthy?
David Anderson, PhD., Texas A&M University
Boy, I think there's a mixed bag of evidence. And I guess the one thing that jumps out at me is that just how I think resilient our economy has been over the last several years, just with all the turmoil, if we go back a little further to COVID and then the gyrations that that caused up and down. But now inflationary pressures, fuel costs, tariffs, through it all, we've continued to have a growing economy the way we measure through GDP, through everything else.
And even with all these pressures, we've tended to be fairly resilient. And I think that's positive news out of it. Certainly inflation's pretty much negative news and higher costs to all of us, consumers and incomes and whatnot.
There's good and bad as we look at the data.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
And where does that resiliency come from? Does that, is that just, you know, we, our way, our economic philosophy, where does that come from? Or is it just, we just like to spend?
David Anderson, PhD., Texas A&M University
Probably we like to spend money. But you know, I think it's been cited a lot that roughly 70% of our economy is consumer spending. And we've continued to spend.
And some of that, you know, we've had a growing stock market. And I would say the stock market is not the economy. Those are related, but different.
But to the extent that that boosts folks' sense of well-being and confidence in spending, I think that's certainly part of the overall picture. We've had relatively low unemployment. That's allowed us to continue to grow.
We've had growing GDP. And as a broad measure that, you know, that's also positive. And so folks have continued to spend, whether it's discretionary income or spending because they have to.
We've continued to do that. And that has continued. I think that's part of this really overall resiliency.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Yeah, it amazes me how it's quantitative, but also qualitative, as you're kind of describing it. Dr. Anderson, we're going to have to leave it there. Look, I appreciate the personal education.
And I'm sure the audience appreciates all the great detail you have. Thanks for joining us. And we look forward to having you back again next month.
I'm looking forward to it. Thanks. Thanks, Dr. Anderson.
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This story was originally published April 22, 2026 at 7:30 AM.