Traffic is down in Greater Miami. The reason may not be cause for celebration
Under normal circumstances, if a Miami-area driver were told area rush hour traffic was down about 30%, they might run out to test how fast they could take the Palmetto Expressway.
But the reason for the current traffic decline may not be cause for much joyriding, according to traffic congestion tracking group TomTom.
In fact, traffic is down across most American cities due to the COVID-19 epidemic. The Miami Herald previously reported that this has translated into fewer accidents, a concern that has long plagued Miami roadways — although speeding has surged.
But the reduced congestion is also signaling unexpected economic changes in regions like greater Miami that could last indefinitely.
Among the biggest drivers of the decline in traffic is school attendance — or lack thereof. According to Nick Cohn, TomTom senior product manager, the nationwide declines in traffic reflect widespread school closures. It is likely that, assuming in-person schooling comes back in the fall, traffic congestion will begin to creep up.
But if schools continue to operate virtually, expect morning and late afternoon traffic to be eerily absent.
Meanwhile, Cohn said, many workers who can work from home are continuing to do so. These types of declines are greatest in cities with large concentrations of so-called knowledge work, like Silicon Valley, Seattle and Austin, where jobs can be done remotely.
That’s a shift that shows no sign of abating, Cohn said.
And while that may mean the broader U.S. economy is continuing to stay afloat, businesses that rely on pedestrian activity in a central business district are likely to be suffering.
Despite its reliance on hospitality, Miami has plenty of industries, like law and finance, whose work can be performed remotely. And with multiple centers of commerce — think Doral and Coral Gables, in addition to downtown and Brickell — that is likely fueling the local economic slowdown.
This month, Yelp reported nearly 3,000 Miami-area businesses have already closed, many for good. Data from Homebase, an employee scheduling app, shows a near one-to-one correlation between hours worked locally in the Miami region and the decline in area traffic.
And reservation data from OpenTable.com shows an even greater decline in dining out, as COVID-19 cases continue to surge in South Florida.
What is most ominous about the data, Cohn said, is what could happen once the pandemic begins to finally ebb. In other cities that have seen their caseloads decline, a lasting trauma has persisted when it comes to taking public transit — a utility South Florida residents have historically avoided even in normal times.
Cohn uses the example of Berlin, Germany, where traffic has actually grown worse than it was before the pandemic. Many Berliners who previously took public transit have now turned to cars they already owned or had access to —clogging up the city’s highways.
The same scenario could play out here, he warned. If Miami-area drivers are left with a fear of riding a potentially crowded bus or train, it could further hamper long-standing efforts to get Magic City drivers out of their cars.
“It’s not purely the economy doing badly,” Cohn said. But the other reasons for the changes are no less worrisome.
This story was originally published July 29, 2020 at 11:10 AM.
