Fewer people are filing for unemployment in Florida. But economists aren’t feeling it
Even as the number of Floridians newly filing for unemployment benefits fell for the third straight week — and even as the U.S. added a record number of jobs — economists continue to warn that the U.S. economic recovery remains on shaky footing.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that new unemployment claims in Florida fell by 11,075 to 84,608 for the week ending June 27. However, Florida also saw an increase of more than 63,000 in continuing claims, or those who stayed on unemployment for more than one week. With 1,059,063 now on the state’s unemployment rolls, the state’s effective unemployment rate now stands at approximately 12%.
Since the outbreak of the pandemic, more than 2 million unique unemployment claims have been filed in the Sunshine State.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday that the U.S. added an estimated 4.8 million jobs in June, about a million more than forecast by economists and a one-month record. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 11.1%.
But another 1.4 million joined the ranks of out-of-work Americans, the U.S. Department of Labor said. And the BLS’ survey came before the latest resurgence of coronavirus cases that have hit Florida, Texas and Arizona.
As a result, economists remain wary of reading too much into the latest data.
“The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell told a House committee on Tuesday, according to The New York Times. “A full recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to re-engage in a broad range of activities.”
A resurgence of the virus would disrupt the already slow economic recovery, some Federal Reserve officials warned in a June 9-10 meeting, according to The Washington Post.
USA Today reports that only about half the 30 to 40 million jobs lost in the past three months are expected to be recouped by year’s end, leaving unemployment near 10%, citing Moody’s Analytics.
In an interview with The Washington Post, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said a full recovery remains at least four years off.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Marianne Wanamaker, a labor economist at the University of Tennessee and a former Trump administration member, said, “We’re in the beginning of a slow recovery. I think the recovery will stall out if we don’t get control of the virus.”
Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal says “despite the incredible job losses we’ve seen since the pandemic, the total compensation for workers and the unemployed is actually up from before the crisis.”
He continued: “This is, in large part, due to the expansion of the Unemployment Insurance program as agreed to by the CARES Act. While there are certainly numerous individuals and households who have taken a major blow to their finances during this crisis, the net change in income has been an increase.”
This story was originally published July 2, 2020 at 9:02 AM.
