March Madness Wiped Out 99.96% of Perfect Brackets in a Single Day of Wild Upsets
Go ahead. Check your bracket. Wince a little. Maybe close the tab before your coworker walks by.
If your March Madness bracket is already in shambles, take comfort in this: you have roughly 25.6 million people keeping you company. That’s not a typo. After just four games — four! — the vast majority of brackets submitted to ESPN’s Tournament Challenge were already toast.
So before you spiral about picking Ohio State or trusting Wisconsin, let’s walk through the beautiful, chaotic wreckage of this year’s first round together.
A Record Number of Fans Signed Up for This Heartbreak
First, the good news — or at least, the “misery loves company” news.
According to ESPN, a record 26.6 million people submitted a March Madness bracket this year. That’s up 7% compared to last year’s 24.4 million entries, setting a new record for the fourth consecutive year.
At peak volume, ESPN Tournament Challenge registered more than 766 brackets per second.
Hundreds of brackets flying in every single second — office pools, family competitions, group chats where someone’s uncle insists he “has a system.” Fans everywhere, clicking submit with confidence we absolutely did not earn.
And according to the NCAA, more than 36 million brackets were submitted across all major online games, including the Men’s Bracket Challenge Game, ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, USA Today and Sports Illustrated.
That is a staggering number of people who are now staring at red Xs on their screens.
Ohio State Started the Carnage Immediately
March Madness tipped off on March 19 with No. 8 Ohio State facing No. 9 TCU. Seems harmless enough, right? An 8-vs.-9 matchup — basically a coin flip. But here’s where things got ugly fast.
According to ESPN, 60% of fans chose Ohio State to win on their March Madness bracket. That amounted to 15,913,028 of the 26.6 million brackets.
Ohio State lost — and just like that, before most of us had even refreshed our screens for the first time, only 40% of brackets remained perfect.
If you were in that 60%, don’t feel bad. You had a lot of company. More than 15.9 million people made the exact same pick. Your whole office probably did.
Then Came High Point — and It All Fell Apart
The second game brought another wave of bracket casualties. No. 13 Troy lost to No. 4 Nebraska, and 1,806,017 more brackets crumbled.
Game three offered a brief glimmer of order. Some 772,406 brackets had No. 11 South Florida pulling off an upset over No. 6 Louisville. Louisville won, so those brackets were gone — but at least the favorites held.
Then came the real gut punch. Just four games into the tournament, No. 12 High Point beat No. 5 Wisconsin.
If you’re asking “Wait, who is High Point?” — well, you and 7,186,973 other bracket holders had Wisconsin winning that game. All of those brackets? Done.
After just those first four games, 25,678,424 of the 26.6 million ESPN brackets were already ruined.
The Upsets Kept Coming on Day One
If you somehow survived those first four games, the rest of the first round wasn’t exactly a smooth ride either. Several more results carved through the bracket field like a buzzsaw:
- No. 6 UNC lost to No. 11 VCU, taking out 311,079 brackets
- No. 12 McNeese lost to No. 5 Vanderbilt, eliminating 214,500 brackets
- No. 7 St. Mary’s fell to No. 10 Texas A&M, wiping out another 141,194 brackets
Overall, six of the 16 games in the first round ended in an upset, including both No. 9 seeds, both No. 11 seeds, a No. 12 seed and a No. 10 seed. That’s more than a third of the opening round going sideways.
If your bracket survived even half of those, give yourself a pat on the back — and maybe buy a lottery ticket.
How Many Perfect Brackets Remain?
Here’s the number that really puts everything in perspective. By the end of day one, only 10,754 perfect brackets remained on ESPN. That represents just 0.04% of the original 26.6 million entries.
Across all major platforms, the NCAA reports that of the more than 36 million brackets submitted, only about 14,000 remain perfect — meaning around 3,000 survived outside of ESPN’s platform.
To be clear: 99.96% of brackets were busted after just one day. So if yours is wrecked, you are statistically in the overwhelming majority. This is not a personal failure. This is a shared national experience.
Can Anyone Beat the All-Time Record?
For the 10,754 who are still standing on ESPN with a perfect 16-for-16 after the first day, there’s a tantalizing question ahead.
According to the NCAA, the longest verifiable streak of correct picks to start an NCAA tournament bracket is 49. That record was set by Gregg Nigl in 2019.
His streak ended when No. 3 Purdue beat No. 2 Tennessee 99-94 in overtime of the second game in the Sweet 16.
Will any of this year’s remaining perfect brackets beat Nigl’s 49? Only time will tell. But for the rest of us — the 25.6 million and counting — there’s always next year’s office pool.
This article was created by content specialists using various tools, including AI.
