Poll shows Venezuela’s Guaidó is losing popularity and has sunk to Maduro level
For the last 10 months, as Juan Guaidó has tried to seize control of Venezuela, he has had a huge asset on his side: the love of the people.
While his foe, Nicolás Maduro, controlled the military and sat in the Miraflores presidential palace, Guaidó could legitimately claim that he had the nation on his side and was far more popular.
Now a new poll suggests that, when it comes to approval ratings, the two men are in a statistical dead heat.
A survey by Meganálisis released Wednesday found that just 10 percent of those surveyed still “believe, trust and support” Guaidó — the man who Washington and 50 other nations consider the country’s legitimate president. When asked about Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, the survey found that 9 percent said they still support him.
The survey of 1,580 people was conducted from Nov. 25 through Dec. 2 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent – meaning the men are in a virtual tie.
The poll is much darker for Guaidó than other surveys. Also on Wednesday, local media reported that Delphos issued a survey giving Guaidó an approval rating of about 45 percent.
Even so, the Meganálisis poll is just one more indication that Guaidó, 36, is losing steam in his prolonged battle to wrest control from Maduro, and it paints a picture of an opposition on the ropes.
In particular, the survey found that just 11 percent of respondents said they still “trust and support” the opposition-controlled National Assembly. That body is seen as the last bastion of Venezuelan democracy by the international community and it’s the only place where the opposition still holds sway.
But the legislative body has been rattled by corruption allegations. On Tuesday, congress opened an investigation into nine opposition lawmakers who are accused of lobbying on behalf of Colombian businessmen who were being investigated for their ties to Venezuela’s controversial and corrupt subsidized-food program.
The survey reflects the growing distrust of lawmakers’ intentions. A full 72 percent of respondents said they believed that opposition legislators were cutting secret deals with Maduro and the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV).
Even so, it’s clear that Venezuela is desperate for change amid a grinding economic crisis that has forced millions to flee the country. Amid the breakdown, 82 percent said they were not receiving municipal water on a daily basis and 42 percent said their access to electricity was “terrible.”
Currently, 87 percent of those surveyed said they wanted Maduro and his allies, or chavistas, out of office.
Meganálisis, a Caracas-based pollster, has been around for years and has been relatively accurate with its predictions in the past.
Guaidó rose to prominence in January when he announced that it was his constitutional duty, as head of congress, to assume the presidency. In his telling, Maduro, 57, had committed fraud in the 2018 presidential election to hold onto power and should be considered an illegitimate “usurper.”
In the initial weeks and months, as the region rallied around Guaidó, he was able to mobilize huge crowds that seemed to credibly threaten Maduro’s hold on power. But recent marches have been weaker and Guaidó’s power seems to be waning.
Eighty-five percent of those surveyed said they would not take to the streets if asked to do so by Guaidó or the National Assembly.
Maduro has long-maintained that Guaidó is the figurehead of a Washington-backed coup attempt. And he says last year’s electoral victory gives him the right to rule through 2025.
Guaidó could face a crucial test next month when congress may hold a leadership vote. While the four main opposition parties have said they want to keep him at the helm and, therefore, as interim president, there are also rumors that he may face challengers.
In addition, the Maduro government is expected to call for new congressional elections sometime in 2020 — putting opposition control at risk.
The burgeoning political scandals and general malaise are “likely to further weaken the opposition and deepen divisions within Guaidó’s coalition,” the Eurasia Group, a political analysis firm, wrote this week. “This comes as the opposition is already struggling to define a strategy having exhausted every option to force regime change.”
This story has been updated from the original to include information about the Delphos.
This story was originally published December 4, 2019 at 2:25 PM with the headline "Poll shows Venezuela’s Guaidó is losing popularity and has sunk to Maduro level."
