Mary Wilkerson is aware there’s a governor’s race on the November ballot, but “it’s not on my radar,” she says.
Wilkerson, 60, a black Democrat in Jacksonville and reliable supporter of President Barack Obama, is the kind of voter who is pivotal to the candidacy of Charlie Crist, the former Republican governor-turned-Democrat.
His campaign has put a premium on building a field operation to turn out the vote in key communities, and has crafted a careful message of inclusion that aims to avoid the mistakes of Alex Sink, the Democrat who lost to Gov. Rick Scott four years ago by less than 2 percent of the vote.
Blacks made up 11 percent of the vote in 2010, “but if that vote share had been over 12 percent, Rick Scott would not be governor,” said Omar Khan, Crist’s campaign manager.
While the two remain virtually tied in recent polls, blacks overwhelmingly support Crist over Scott this election cycle. Black voters showed up in larger numbers in 2008 and 2012 than white voters, but will they bring record numbers to the polls without Obama at the top of the ticket?
That’s a question black leaders across the state have been asking since the August primary, when less than 5 percent of Florida’s 1.6 million black voters cast ballots, and it has influenced their answer.
“We’re not doing it for Charlie, we’re doing it for us,” said former North Miami City Council member Jacques Despinosse. He is using his show on Haitian radio to promote Crist and running mate Annette Taddeo because, he said, he “doesn’t trust Scott.”
Primary turnout was the lowest in 16 years this year, and the counties with the greatest share of black voters had dismal turnouts: Broward (10.7 percent), Duval (17 percent), Miami-Dade (14.4 percent) and Hillsborough (16.7 percent).
Democratic leaders say there is no comparison between the primary and the general election, when Florida’s 2.7 million voters with no party affiliation will have a chance to vote. But Nov. 4 is a midterm election and, experts say, enthusiasm among black voters will be low because of the television-driven negative ads and the lack of a well-known black candidate for statewide office.
Eugene Hutchinson, a black Republican from Keystone Heights, near Jacksonville, says he hasn’t made up his mind in the governor’s race.
“Right now, you’ve got a lot of talking going on,” and election-year conversions turn him off, he said. “The governor has changed his position on a lot of things, and I believe honesty is a great quality.” But, he added, Crist has had his own election-year “flip-flops,” he said. “It’s almost a tale of two choices — which one do you like the least.”
To counter Scott’s shift on hot button-issues such as education, healthcare and the environment, Crist’s opponents have effectively groomed a message that Crist’s shift on policies from when he called himself a “Ronald Reagan Republican” means he can’t be trusted.
In June, a secretive Maryland-based group called “The Progressive Choice” aired a series of radio commercials comparing Crist’s push as a legislator to bring back “chain gangs” to slavery and blaming his support for tougher drug sentences for “a lost generation of African Americans.”
The ads, which many Democrats believe were run as a front for Florida Republicans, prompted Crist spokesman Kevin Cate to accuse Scott and the GOP of “the most disgusting, repulsive campaign in modern history.”
Blacks are aware of Crist’s record, said state Sen. Dwight Bullard, D-Miami, who supported former state Sen. Nan Rich in the Democratic primary, but they are “realizing it’s bigger than the top of the ticket.”
At a recent NAACP forum in Miami, he said, “people were making the mental adjustment that they have to take ownership of this election” and have grown more comfortable with Crist. Likewise, Crist is more comfortable with “an electorate that he never really had to work with before,” Bullard said.
Reginald McGill, who works for Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, said he knows Crist’s record is mixed for many in the black community. But, he says, Crist “took heat from his party when he was governor.”
“While Charlie Crist is not perfect — by no stretch of the imagination — I’ll be out campaigning for him, and it’s not because of the party affiliation,” McGill said. “It’s because I understand he does not mind taking a stand when it’s not popular to do it.”
Several black leaders cited Crist’s record against Scott’s: his veto of the GOP-led push to tie teacher pay increases to test scores, his support for healthcare reform and an increase in the minimum wage, his push for voting rights for felons who have served their sentences — which was reversed by Scott and the Florida Cabinet — and Crist’s move to extend early voting in 2008, which Scott and the GOP-led Legislature reversed in 2012.
“Listen to others, including people who don’t agree with us, Gov. Crist is not running to be governor of the Democrats but to be governor of all of us,” Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick said at a Crist field office in North Miami earlier this month. He said he met Crist in 2007, “at a time when you didn’t have to hate Democrats to be a good Republican.”
Khan, Crist’s campaign manager, is a veteran of Obama’s campaigns in Florida. He said Crist’s campaign expects to be outspent almost two to one, and “we know we’re going to get beat up on TV, but our path to victory involves talking to voters and getting them out to vote, and a large part of that is African Americans.”
Crist’s field operation includes the opening of 31 local offices, staffed with 121 people and a contingent of volunteers who have made 1 million phone calls and knocked on 200,000 doors, Khan said.
“We know where the voters are, and we know how to communicate to them,” he said, asserting it is “the kind of field program that has never been done in Florida.”
But will it be enough to overcome the confusion of asking blacks to vote for a former Republican who for years they had been told to oppose?
Beverly Neal of the Orange County NAACP testified during the state redistricting trial this summer that she believes voter confusion equals voter suppression.
“The African American community is very fragile,” she said. “They don’t got out and do a lot of research. They go out and vote what they are told to vote, and confusion means they won’t go out and vote.”
Evelyn Foxx, president of the NAACP in Alachua County, acknowledges that black voters are “not tuned in as strongly as we would like,” but says she is optimistic.
Scott’s campaign and the Republican Party of Florida would not comment for this article when asked about the importance of the black vote in Florida. But spokeswoman Jackie Schutz pointed to Crist’s support of a lawsuit challenging the Legislature’s expansion of tuition vouchers, an issue the GOP believes will hurt Crist’s black support.
“Rick Scott’s priority is ensuring that every Floridian has the ability to pursue the American dream — unlike Charlie Crist, who tries to divide people and turn neighbors against each other in his endless search for political power,” she said. “That’s why Charlie Crist chose to side with his biggest campaign contributors instead of the children — many from minority communities — who benefit from school choice. To Charlie Crist, each Floridian is nothing more than a political calculation.”
Foxx dismisses those differences as unlikely to influence most black voters.
“The African American community believes in the public school system, and when you take money from the public school system and give it to private schools, you hurt the public schools,” she said.
Black voters were crucial to Obama’s two victories in Florida. That was especially true in 2012, when they voted in higher proportion than whites nationwide and in Florida. In 2010, a midterm election, Florida black voter turnout was 42 percent compared to 49 percent of whites — a trend that underscores what Emory University professor Andra Gillespie termed “the Obama effect.”
This year, Crist spends every Sunday visiting churches in black communities and meeting with constituents. He is also employing surrogates such as former President Bill Clinton and Deval Patrick to talk to voters. Khan is not ruling out visits from the president or wife Michelle Obama, either.
Because blacks turned out to vote early at rates higher than the rest of the population, the campaign is focused on getting people to vote by absentee ballot or to go to early voting sites, Khan said.
And the campaign has employed an aggressive voter-protection effort, modeled after the one used by Obama, that engages volunteer attorneys to challenge any attempt to disqualify ballots or obstructvoting.
“We’re going to trace every absentee ballot that goes out,” said Alachua County’s Foxx. “We are taking nothing for granted.”