Politics
To unofficially kick off the 2016 mayoral campaign season, we’ve chatted up nearly 50 Miami-Dade political insiders on the names to watch.
We call it the Mayoral Matrix. The vertical axis tracks the person’s likelihood of actually being on the ballot in 2016, and the horizontal axis tracks their perceived strength as a mayoral contender.
EMILIO GONZÁLEZ, MIA DIRECTOR: Insiders have mentioned González, 57, as a potential candidate if Gimenez chose not to seek reelection. He once considered running for mayor of the city of Miami and has extensive Republican political ties as former director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services under President George W. Bush. He also spent 25 years in the U.S. Army.
Roberto Koltun
El Nuevo Herald file
KATY SORENSON, FORMER COUNTY COMMISSIONER: Sorenson is back in the spotlight after having backed Daniella Levine Cava in her defeat of Commissioner Lynda Bell, in a race largely viewed as a battle between local Democrats and Republicans. Sorenson says she’s been approached about a mayoral run in the past, but has no desire to pursue the job.
File
Miami Herald file
JULIO ROBAINA, FORMER HIALEAH MAYOR: Acquitted of tax-evasion charges in April, Robaina could make another run for redemption, tapping the Republican donors who helped him outraise Gimenez in 2011 when they both ran for the open mayor’s seat. But Robaina, 49, is no longer a sitting official, so he has less pull, and he could still face problems with the IRS.
Hector Gabino
El Nuevo Herald file
JOSE FELIX DIAZ, STATE REPRESENTATIVE: Local Republicans consider Diaz, 34, one of their up-and-comers. But statehouse districts are small, and Diaz has little name recognition. And he won’t be term-limited in Tallahassee until after 2016, and since legislative seniority matters, dropping out early makes little sense.
C.M. Guerrero
El Nuevo Herald file
WIFREDO FERRER, U.S. ATTORNEY: Ferrer has not expressed any interest in leaving the powerful U.S. Justice Department to seek elective office. But he’s a prominent Cuban-American Democrat in a county with few of them, so insiders would inevitably like to see him on the ballot, as a fresh face with law enforcement credentials.
Pedro Portal
El Nuevo Herald file
JOE MARTINEZ, FORMER COUNTY COMMISSIONER: Martinez, 57, makes no secret he’d like to return to public service, after losing in 2012 to Gimenez and placing third this year in a Republican primary for Congress. But while he says he’s been asked to challenge the mayor again, he won’t unless supporters open their checkbooks — something that usually happens after a candidate jumps in.“Without money you can’t really run a credible race. People forget your good deeds.”
Roberto Koltun
El Nuevo Herald file
JEAN MONESTIME, COUNTY COMMISSIONER: If he succeeds in his bid for commission chair, the recently reelected Monestime could leverage the countywide exposure and fundraising muscle that comes with the influential position. Monestime, 51, would be the first prominent Haitian-American to make a run for the mayoral seat. But he’s shown no interest in taking on Gimenez and, with just four years on the dais, he’s not as well known as rival for the chair’s gavel, Audrey Edmonson.
Miami Herald file
JUAN C. ZAPATA, COUNTY COMMISSIONER: Zapata, 47, grew up in Colombia, and privately sees his appeal as bridging the Cuban and non-Cuban Hispanic constituencies. But as a first-term commissioner, the former state lawmaker has limited name recognition outside his suburban district. “I have thought about running for mayor just to raise the issues that need to be discussed,” he said.
Miami Herald file
AUDREY EDMONSON, COUNTY COMMISSIONER: The chair of the county commission is a natural launching pad for a mayoral bid, so Edmonson, 61, is bound to get encouragement and attention should she succeed in her bid for the chair’s gavel. With nearly 10 years on the commission and a knack for embracing issues on the left (protecting transgender rights) and the right (legalizing Uber), Edmonson could move beyond her district’s African-American base. Edmonson said she’d “never” run for mayor.
Miami Herald file
KATHERINE FERNÁNDEZ RUNDLE, STATE ATTORNEY: She replaced Janet Reno as the county’s top law-enforcement official way back in 1993, so Fernández Rundle has had plenty of chances to run for mayor. Nobody expects her to this time, either. But as a consistent winner at the polls and arguably the county’s senior elected Democrat (along with Court Clerk Harvey Ruvin), she would have an instant claim to her party’s mantle should she decide to challenge Gimenez.
Pedro Portal
El Nuevo Herald file
ANNETTE TADDEO, FORMER LT. GOV. CANDIDATE: Before her failed statewide bid with Charlie Crist this year, Taddeo presided over the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, criticizing Gimenez when he balked at redrawing overcrowded voting precincts. Her party ties run deep and she knows how to raise money. But Taddeo, 47, has lost the three races in which she’s been on the ballot — including one for county commission in 2010 — and seems more interested in national policy.
Alan Diaz
AP file
ALONZO MOURNING, FORMER MIAMI HEAT STAR: The 44-year-old famous philanthropist was mentioned by two insiders speculating about a dream candidate for taking on Gimenez from the left. Mourning’s foundation gives him a track record of tackling local problems, he has more name recognition than anyone on the list, and is close friends with President Obama. . “I am absolutely not running for public office,” Mourning said.
Miami Herald file
PHILIP LEVINE, MIAMI BEACH MAYOR: The millionaire publisher has the money to challenge conventional wisdom that a non-Hispanic can’t win countywide in Miami-Dade. He speaks Spanish, and his prominent role on sea-level rise and close ties to the Clintons would help him claim the local Democratic mantle in the 2016. Some think he wants the Governor’s Mansion rather than County Hall.
Daniel Bock
Miami Herald file
JOE GARCIA, U.S. REPRESENTATIVE: With a federal criminal investigation into his 2010 campaign still under way, Garcia lost his reelection bid to Congress this month. It was a Republican-dominated election, and he could try to run again in 2016, a presidential year more favorable to Democrats. But Garcia, 51, who lost a squeaker county commission race in 1993, has privately told insiders he might prefer to challenge Gimenez.
Pedro Portal
El Nuevo Herald file
CARLOS LOPEZ-CANTERA, LT. GOVERNOR: Elected as Republican Gov. Rick Scott’s lieutenant earlier this month, Lopez-Cantera appears unlikely to leave statewide office to return to county government. While at County Hall as Miami-Dade’s elected property appraiser, Lopez-Cantera counted Gimenez as one of his few allies, which means challenging him seems improbable. But Lopez-Cantera, 40, has a young family — based in Miami, at least up to now — and has proven he can win countywide.
Alan Diaz
AP file
REBECA SOSA, COMMISSION CHAIRWOMAN: Sosa is the sole Cuban-American woman on the county commission and has cultivated relationships with big-name Republicans — including U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio. Both once held municipal seats in West Miami. The chairmanship has given Sosa, 59, plenty of public exposure, but her term ends this year, weakening her position for 2016. “Let’s see what happens between now and then,” she said recently. “It’s too early.”
Marice Cohn Band
Miami Herald file
XAVIER SUAREZ , COUNTY COMMISSIONER: As he publicly flirts with a run, Suarez, 65, has used his commission seat to knock Gimenez. The former Miami mayor brings high name recognition, but also the baggage from a tempestuous second stint as mayor. He’s had no problem holding the seat Gimenez once occupied, and could be a spoiler in the August primary that forces Gimenez into a runoff with a more liberal candidate.
Walter Michot
Miami Herald file
MANNY DIAZ, FORMER MIAMI MAYOR: Though credited with the resurgence of downtown Miami, Diaz was unpopular when he left office in 2009, having championed the Miami Marlins’ ballpark deal. Diaz, 59, kept a low profile until earlier this year, when he successfully opposed Gimenez’s idea to fill a downtown boat slip for a Major League Soccer stadium. Deep-pocketed donors like him, making him a serious contender.
City of Miami 1
Miami Herald file
RAQUEL REGALADO, SCHOOL BOARD MEMBER:
The broadcaster and daughter of Miami Mayor Tomás Regalado would bring a famous name to the race. Regalado, 40, led a succesful charge against a Gimenez-backed plan to raise taxes for a new county courthouse. Challenges include a 2014 foreclosure, which the single mom blamed on the rising costs of caring for an autistic daughter. Insiders say a Hillary Clinton run would help Regalado try to break Miami-Dade’s mayoral glass ceiling. But they also see the current buzz as a nice set-up to succeed her father in Miami in 2017.
Miami Herald file
ALBERTO CARVALHO, SUPERINTENDENT OF SCHOOLS: Publicly, Carvalho insists he’s sticking with the school system but privately he’s not ruling out anything, say people close to him. Could an executive used to an accommodating school board handle the thrashing that comes with a county campaign? Most insiders doubt Carvalho, an independent, would risk his career on an electoral loss, especially with his eye on being education secretary to the next president.
Hector Gabino
El Nuevo Herald file
of 22
i
