Greg Cote’s Thursday night NFL pick

DOLPHINS (4-5) at BILLS (3-6)

Line: BUF by 1

Cote’s pick: BUF 24-20

TV: 8:20 p.m., Channel 33 (South Florida only), NFL Network.

The Dolphins kick off NFL Week 11 on a Thursday night amid expected temps in the 30s in Buffalo. I don’t know about you but to me spending a really cold Thursday night in Buffalo sounds a little bit like hell on Earth, unless perhaps I am sitting dreamily before a cold pitcher of Genesee and a hot platter of Duff’s wings. The Bills lost by one point to the same Titans team that just beat Miami by 34. This gives me pause. Gives me concern. Buffalo is not awful; Buffalo is close enough to Miami’s level. Yes, the Buffs’ run defense is horrible, suggesting Redemption Day for Reggie Bush. But Miami’s hasn’t been much better the past four games, and C.J. Spiller averages a silly-good 7.3 yards per carry. As for the Bills’ defense being bad overall … um, wasn’t Tennessee’s supposed to be, too? Near-pick-’em game is an AFC East coin flip, but Miami has not scored a TD in six straight quarters and, sorry, but the hard, cold road in Buffalo does not sound like a get-well card.