Miami Herald Logo

Florida election turnout war off to early start | Miami Herald

×
  • E-edition
  • Home
    • Site Information
    • Contact Us
    • About Us
    • Herald Store
    • RSS Feeds
    • Special Sections
    • Advertise
    • Advertise with Us
    • Media Kit
    • Mobile
    • Mobile Apps & eReaders
    • Newsletters
    • Social
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Google+
    • Instagram
    • YouTube

    • Sections
    • News
    • South Florida
    • Miami-Dade
    • Broward
    • Florida Keys
    • Florida
    • Politics
    • Weird News
    • Weather
    • National & World
    • Colombia
    • National
    • World
    • Americas
    • Cuba
    • Guantánamo
    • Haiti
    • Venezuela
    • Local Issues
    • Crime
    • Education
    • Environment
    • Health Care
    • In Depth
    • Issues & Ideas
    • Traffic
    • Sections
    • Sports
    • Blogs & Columnists
    • Pro & College
    • Miami Dolphins
    • Miami Heat
    • Miami Marlins
    • Florida Panthers
    • College Sports
    • University of Miami
    • Florida International
    • University of Florida
    • Florida State University
    • More Sports
    • High School Sports
    • Auto Racing
    • Fighting
    • Golf
    • Horse Racing
    • Outdoors
    • Soccer
    • Tennis
    • Youth Sports
    • Other Sports
    • Politics
    • Elections
    • The Florida Influencer Series
    • Sections
    • Business
    • Business Monday
    • Banking
    • International Business
    • National Business
    • Personal Finance
    • Real Estate News
    • Small Business
    • Technology
    • Tourism & Cruises
    • Workplace
    • Business Plan Challenge
    • Blogs & Columnists
    • Cindy Krischer Goodman
    • The Starting Gate
    • Work/Life Balancing Act
    • Movers
    • Sections
    • Living
    • Advice
    • Fashion
    • Food & Drink
    • Health & Fitness
    • Home & Garden
    • Pets
    • Recipes
    • Travel
    • Wine
    • Blogs & Columnists
    • Dave Barry
    • Ana Veciana-Suarez
    • Flashback Miami
    • More Living
    • LGBTQ South Florida
    • Palette Magazine
    • Indulge Magazine
    • South Florida Album
    • Broward Album
    • Sections
    • Entertainment
    • Books
    • Comics
    • Games & Puzzles
    • Horoscopes
    • Movies
    • Music & Nightlife
    • People
    • Performing Arts
    • Restaurants
    • TV
    • Visual Arts
    • Blogs & Columnists
    • Jose Lambiet
    • Lesley Abravanel
    • More Entertainment
    • Events Calendar
    • Miami.com
    • Contests & Promotions
    • Sections
    • All Opinion
    • Editorials
    • Op-Ed
    • Editorial Cartoons
    • Jim Morin
    • Letters to the Editor
    • From Our Inbox
    • Speak Up
    • Submit a Letter
    • Meet the Editorial Board
    • Influencers Opinion
    • Blogs & Columnists
    • Blog Directory
    • Columnist Directory
    • Andres Oppenheimer
    • Carl Hiaasen
    • Leonard Pitts Jr.
    • Fabiola Santiago
    • Obituaries
    • Obituaries in the News
    • Place an Obituary

    • Place an ad
    • All Classifieds
    • Announcements
    • Apartments
    • Auctions/Sales
    • Automotive
    • Commercial Real Estate
    • Employment
    • Garage Sales
    • Legals
    • Merchandise
    • Obituaries
    • Pets
    • Public Notices
    • Real Estate
    • Services
  • Public Notices
  • Cars
  • Jobs
  • Moonlighting
  • Real Estate
  • Mobile & Apps

  • el Nuevo Herald
  • Miami.com
  • Indulge

State

Florida election turnout war off to early start

By Marc Caputo

    ORDER REPRINT →

October 25, 2013 12:48 PM

Florida Democrats celebrate this weekend at Disney World; Republicans might wind up knocking on your door.

The contrast between the two parties — one reveling in repeat election wins and favorable polls at its state conference, the other canvassing neighborhoods door-to-door statewide — illustrates Florida’s state of political play over the next election year.

“Florida Democrats are in Orlando this weekend to talk to themselves,” said Tim Saler, a top Republican Party of Florida political strategist.

“While their wheels are spinning at their convention,” he said, “we will have hundreds of precinct captains knocking on doors and talking to thousands of real voters about the issues that matter to them.”

Sign Up and Save

Get six months of free digital access to the Miami Herald

SUBSCRIBE WITH GOOGLE

#ReadLocal

For months, even as Republican Gov. Rick Scott’s poll numbers remained poor, RPOF says it has been identifying and then personally contacting thousands of voters — especially the estimated 450,000 Republicans who vote in presidential elections but didn’t in 2010.

More than half live in conservative “fortress precincts” targeted by Republicans.

RPOF also recently announced three new Hispanic-outreach coordinators. Democrats had already hired three of their own.

Democrats have a bigger edge with Hispanics, the fastest-growing segment of the electorate. And they’re trying to keep it that way.

Since May, the Florida Democratic Party says it has hosted about six monthly voter-registration efforts outside naturalization ceremonies in Central and South Florida, where they also have held an average of three Hispanic community events a month.

Democrats have tailored some events toward Venezuelans, Colombians, Cubans, Nicaraguans and Puerto Ricans in different areas of the state.

“We haven’t stopped our efforts since 2012,” said the Florida Democratic Party’s political director, Christian Ulvert, estimating the party has out-registered Republicans with Hispanics by a ratio of three to one.

“We haven’t seen where the Republicans have been doing it in a coordinated way or effective way,” he said.

Democrats have eagerly informed Hispanics of Scott’s hardline immigration stances. They also note that, between the 2010 and 2012 elections, more Hispanics registered as independents — 538,708 — than as Republicans, 476,488.

About 645,000 Hispanics were registered as Democrats in the last election.

Just as the buzz of President Barack Obama’s November 2012 win was wearing off, Democrats scored a second victory this month when Democrat Amanda Murphy won a Pasco County state House seat despite being outspent by the Republicans.

The tarnished GOP brand during the partial government shutdown and Scott’s low standing with voters, consultants say, played roles in Murphy’s victory two weeks before this weekend’s Florida Democratic Party State Conference at a Disney resort.

But if previous elections are any indication, Democrats have an uphill climb next year. Republicans typically over-perform in midterm elections, allowing the GOP to control the governor’s office, Cabinet and a majority of the Legislature.

Polls indicate the best Democratic candidate for governor was once a Republican — Gov. Charlie Crist — who will attend the conference.

Former state Sen. Nan Rich, the only major announced Democratic candidate, is expected to speak twice at the conference. Crist won’t because he hasn’t announced yet.

Though Crist performs best in polls against Scott, the governor plans to spend as much as $100 million to change those numbers. Republicans are zeroing in on Crist’s numerous flip-flops and the bad economy he left behind in 2009.

Polls a year out from an election aren’t clear predictors of a winner, either.

A Quinnipiac Florida survey released a year before the presidential election — just before a major RPOF presidential forum — showed Obama trailing Republican Mitt Romney by 7 percentage points.

Obama had more negative job approval numbers than Scott a year out from the election — yet the president won the state by one point, or 74,309 votes.

Republicans point out that, though Obama’s campaign received a lion’s share of the attention for turning out voters, more Republicans proportionately turned out in the election.

Only 70 percent of registered Democrats turned out to cast ballots in 2012, but 76 percent of registered Republicans did so in Florida.

But of the total ballots cast, Democrats edged Republicans by 1.5 percentage points because active registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 535,987, a lead cut to 503,977 by the end of last month.

The major numerical advantage of Democrats, however, has traditionally disappeared in lower turnout gubernatorial-race years, when Republican enthusiasm to cast ballots remains stronger.

Scott’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, told the Miami-Dade Republican women’s club recently that, as good as the Romney turnout operation was, “the field plan for 2014 is much more expansive.”

But Fabrizio and the RPOF in an April report acknowledged Republicans have work to do, in light of the fact that only 45 percent of registered Republicans voted in 2010 (the Democratic drop-off was even greater).

To get more Republicans to the polls, RPOF identified 1,219 large Republican-majority “fortress precincts” that account for 41 percent of all GOP voters statewide and contain about 252,000 off-year no-shows.

Boosting turnout by a quarter here would give Scott an extra 63,013 votes — 2.3 percent more than his margin over Democrat Alex Sink in 2010, which was a high watermark election year for conservatives.

Scott, according to exit polls, beat Sink among Hispanic voters by two percentage points. Two years later, Florida Hispanic voters backed Obama by 21 percentage points over Republican Mitt Romney. The margin was even bigger nationwide.

The demographics underpinning the last election’s results have worried RPOF and Fabrizio.

Women, who outvote men in Florida by nine to 10 percentage points, are leaving the Republican Party in noticeable numbers.

Fabrizio, talking to the Miami-Dade club, also mentioned the need for minority outreach.

“Otherwise we’re going to be the party of whites in an electorate, in a shrinking electoral pool, that we can’t win,” Fabrizio said. “Yeah, so we get 65 percent of the white vote. But if they’re only 65 percent of the vote, guess what? You can’t win.”

Fabrizio, though, said the demographic troubles are more problematic in future elections after the governor’s race. And he’s confident in Scott’s plan.

Democrats, however, say the Republican Party is undergoing an internal nationwide revolt from the tea party, and it’s hurting the GOP’s chances in the polls and from within.

“They have a split party,” said Sen. Bill Nelson, the only statewide elected Democratic officeholder. “You have the tail wagging the dog, which is the tea party extremists.”

But Nelson said that doesn’t mean Democrats should underestimate RPOF.

“I’d take anybody seriously,” Nelson said.

  Comments  

Videos

Brick-throwing bandit fails to break into Florida gas station

Police dashcam video shows pursuit of stolen community watch vehicle

View More Video

Trending Stories

Military planes carrying 180 tons of aid for Venezuelans fly from Miami to Colombia

February 16, 2019 08:00 AM

Here are some of the worst mistakes immigrants make applying for legal papers

February 15, 2019 11:26 AM

Dolphins sign former second-round defensive end and a young cornerback

February 15, 2019 03:30 PM

‘Crazy chick’ didn’t want to sit next to a toddler on a plane. Then came the outburst.

February 15, 2019 03:28 PM

U.S. looks to send food aid to Haiti as violence brews humanitarian crisis

February 15, 2019 06:27 PM

Read Next

Panic at the Orlando airport when a man alarms passengers at security checkpoint

Florida

Panic at the Orlando airport when a man alarms passengers at security checkpoint

By Howard Cohen

    ORDER REPRINT →

February 16, 2019 02:52 PM

A man attempted to breach a security checkpoint at Orlando International Airport. When he put his hand in his pocket, passengers screamed he had a gun, causing a panic. Police arrested the man, MOC resumed flights.

KEEP READING

Sign Up and Save

#ReadLocal

Get six months of free digital access to the Miami Herald

SUBSCRIBE WITH GOOGLE

MORE STATE

A Florida man got a tax refund for almost $1 million. His income was far less than that.

Florida

A Florida man got a tax refund for almost $1 million. His income was far less than that.

February 16, 2019 02:00 PM
Top aide of Jeffrey Epstein prosecutor Acosta: We acted with integrity

Politics

Top aide of Jeffrey Epstein prosecutor Acosta: We acted with integrity

February 15, 2019 12:17 PM
Broward judge violated rules by advertising Democratic endorsement, commission says

Broward County

Broward judge violated rules by advertising Democratic endorsement, commission says

February 15, 2019 04:18 PM
Vegan parents starve 5-month-old by switching out doctor’s formula, Florida police say

Florida

Vegan parents starve 5-month-old by switching out doctor’s formula, Florida police say

February 15, 2019 09:28 AM
Kids sue state of Florida for action on climate change. DeSantis wants suit dismissed

Environment

Kids sue state of Florida for action on climate change. DeSantis wants suit dismissed

February 14, 2019 09:20 AM
What happened when cops at a retirement village chased a stolen SUV through golf courses

Florida

What happened when cops at a retirement village chased a stolen SUV through golf courses

February 14, 2019 03:00 PM
Take Us With You

Real-time updates and all local stories you want right in the palm of your hand.

Icon for mobile apps

Miami Herald App

View Newsletters

Subscriptions
  • Start a Subscription
  • Customer Service
  • eEdition
  • Vacation Hold
  • Pay Your Bill
  • Rewards
Learn More
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Newsletters
  • News in Education
  • Public Insight Network
  • Reader Panel
Advertising
  • Place a Classified
  • Media Kit
  • Commercial Printing
  • Public Notices
Copyright
Commenting Policy
Privacy Policy
Terms of Service


Back to Story