Money Research Collective’s editorial team solely created this content. Opinions are their own, but compensation and in-depth research determine where and how companies may appear. Many featured companies advertise with us. How we make money.
Over Half of Americans Think the U.S. Is in a Recession (It’s Not)
By Julia Glum MONEY RESEARCH COLLECTIVE
The last recession took place from February 2020 to April 2020.
Good news! It appears our famously divided nation may be finally agreeing on something: In a new poll, a majority of Americans say they think the United States is currently in a recession.
The only problem? It’s, um, not.
The survey results, published Wednesday by The Guardian, indicate that folks believe the U.S. economy is doing worse than it is. Not only do 56% of respondents say the country is experiencing a recession, but also 55% say the economy is shrinking. All of these beliefs are factually incorrect.
Are we in a recession?
Many experts broadly define a recession as two consecutive quarters of real gross domestic product, or GDP, decline. In the fourth quarter of 2023, GDP increased 3.4%. In the first quarter of 2024, it rose 1.6%. (The latter is an advance estimate but still reflects growth, not contraction.)
But there’s actually a specific committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, that’s tasked with formally declaring when there is — and isn’t — a recession. The NBER subscribes to the idea that “a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months,” according to its website, meaning it’s not beholden to the two-quarters restriction.
Regardless of which recession definition you prefer, the current state of the economy doesn’t qualify. GDP has not fallen for two consecutive quarters, and the NBER has not declared a recession.
In fact, the U.S. hasn’t technically had a recession in years. The last recession took place from February 2020 to April 2020, right as the pandemic was getting underway.
Inflation, unemployment and stock market misconceptions
It’s not uncommon for there to be a major difference between how analysts think the economy is performing and how everyday Americans feel about their money.
But the Guardian poll surfaces several beliefs that run contrary to the facts. For instance, it found that 72% of people say they think inflation is increasing, when in reality it’s been decreasing for months. About half say unemployment is at a five-decade high — in truth, it’s near a five-decade low. Another 49% of those polled say the S&P 500 — an index that serves as a benchmark for stock market performance overall — is down so far in 2024, when it’s actually up 12%.
What’s behind the disconnect?
It could be politics. With the 2024 presidential election coming up, voters are scrutinizing how the economy performed under candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump. In the survey, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say both the U.S. is in a recession and inflation is surging.
It could also simply be lived experience.
The vibes are not great, especially depending on what economic indicators matter to you: A 2023 survey from The Atlantic, for instance, found that people were deeply upset about the cost of groceries, which isn’t something that’s necessarily captured in high-level analysis. Housing continues to feel unaffordable for vast swaths of Americans, as well, given sky-high mortgage rates and rents that are rising, in some places, faster than wages.
Whatever the reason, the Guardian survey data indicates that we’re likely to hear a lot more about the state of the economy before November. Remember to check the facts before believing anything that comes your way.
Reduce payments and make debt manageable with a Debt Relief program
Recommended for debts above $20,000
- Fast & easy online registration with 24/7 customer assistance
- Free, no-obligation evaluation
- Low monthly payments with no upfront fees
- A+ rating from the BBB
- $20 Billion+ debt resolved
- Helping people overcome debt since 2002
Serving customers with $20,000 of debt and more
- 100% free, no-risk consultation
- No upfront enrollment fees
- Get out of debt in 24-48 months
- Applying won’t affect your credit score
- A+ BBB rating
- Building financial well-being since 2011
Best for people with $10,000 in unsecured debt or more
- Fast and easy application process
- No upfront fees
- Free consultation, 100% confidential
- Become debt-free in 24 to 48 months
- AFC accredited and A+ rated by the BBB
- Resolving debt since 2009
Client rating of 9.4 stars
$20,000 in credit card and personal loans debts or more
- 100% Service Guarantee
- No upfront fees
- Free savings quote online or by phone
- Professional debt consultants
- See below disclosures
More from Money:
Recession vs. Depression: What’s the Difference?
When Will the Fed Cut Rates? Cooling Inflation Builds Hope for September
8 Expenses That Have Spiked Over 10% in the Past Year
Julia Glum is Money's news editor, keeping her finger on the pulse of financial trends that affect Americans' wallets. She also writes Dollar Scholar, a weekly newsletter that teaches young adults how to navigate the messy world of money. A 2014 graduate of the University of Florida's journalism school, she previously covered breaking news, politics and education at Newsweek and International Business Times. Julia joined Money in 2018; during her time as a reporter, she wrote frequently about Amazon, passive income, stimulus checks and creative ways people make money online (think: Vine compilations, Cash App Friday and Facebook gift groups). As an editor, she oversees Money’s tax coverage, which includes extensive reporting on tax credits, year-to-year policy changes, tax refunds and the IRS’s ongoing efforts to modernize. For several years, Julia has assisted with Money’s annual Best Colleges rating and Best Places to Live rankings. Recently, she also led Money’s 50th anniversary celebrations, producing the Money Classic newsletter and rolling out Changemakers, a project profiling 50 innovators working to revolutionize personal finance. Julia has interviewed National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins, actor Danny Devito, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, rapper Killer Mike, real estate guru Ryan Serhant and many others. Her work has been cited or otherwise shared by the New York Times, Washington Post, Vox, theSkimm, Mashable, CNBC and POLITICO. She’s appeared on Good Morning America, CBS News, PIX11, WGN, the Mountain West News Bureau and more. Julia is based in New York City. You can find her at juliaglum.com.