We ought to know by now.
The old baseball adage says the pennant races begin around Memorial Day, roughly 60 games after the season starts.
In fantasy baseball, we usually have an idea of who is going to perform and who is not going to perform after about 30 games -- which is where we are right now in the baseball season.
Welcome to The Miami Herald's inaugural online fantasy baseball column where we'll try each Monday to provide some insight into rotisserie baseball.
Now that we're a good month into the baseball season here's what we know so far:
• The Red Sox's best offensive player thus far this season is not Big Papi or Manny. It's first baseman Kevin Youkilis, who has become a top 5 player at both first base and third base (where's he eligible in most leagues). Youk is at .319 with 8 HR and 30 RBI as of Monday. Not too shabby for a guy Boston kept shuttling back and forth to Triple A Pawtucket as recently as 2005.
• Most of the Arizona Diamondbacks' baby-backs are going to hit in hitter-friendly Chase Field and they're going to do it consistently throughout the season. Arizona is second in the NL in runs and fourth in home runs thanks to players such as Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Conor Jackson and Chris Young.
• Don't overlook pitchers, who don't rack up big strikeout totals. As Crash Davis told pitcher Nuke LaLoosh in the baseball movie classic Bull Durham: ''Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls -- it's more democratic.'' While strikeouts might not be boring to some fantasy owners, don't ignore those pitchers doing well that don't have a penchant for the K. Hurlers such as the Angels' Joe Saunders (6-1, 2.48 ERA), the Rockies' Aaron Cook (6-1, 2.26 ERA), Aaron Laffey (1.83 ERA) and the Marlins' Scott Olsen (4-1, 2.63 ERA) all can help you with numerous other pitching categories.
• Like John Smoltz did in moving from the closer's role back to the starting rotation, the Cubs' Ryan Dempster looks like he's going to be just fine starting games again. The former Marlins' ace is off to a terrific start (4-1, 2.76 ERA) for the North Siders and has emerged as the Cubbies No. 2 starter behind Carlos Zambrano.
• Moving over to the South Side of Chicago, outfielder Carlos Quentin is a bonafide star in the making. The 25-year-old was one of the top college hitters while at Stanford, but had some injury issues with the Diamondbacks, his former team. Now healthy with the White Sox, Quentin is tearing it up (.298, 9 HR, 29 RBI).
• So much for shortstop Miguel Tejada being on the back end of his career after all the HGH talk in the offseason. Several owners in the two leagues I play in tried to pry Tejada away from my teams with talk of ''Miggy is done.'' Looks like all Tejada (.338, 5 HR, 28 RBI) needed was a change of scenery from the constant-rebuilding of the Orioles to the contending Astros.
• Don't worry too much about the slumping Brewers. With the exception of third baseman Bill Hall, who strikeouts way too much (38 Ks in 137 ABs), stick to your guns with the young Brew Crew of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy. Milwaukee's got bigger issues with finding someone to backup Ben Sheets in the starting rotation after young flamethrower Yovani Gallardo is probably lost for the season after undergoing knee surgery.
• If you're in a keeper league, do yourself a favor and grab Twins' outfielder Carlos Gomez while you can. Although, Gomez is hitting a pedestrian .273 with 2 HR and 13 RBI, the 22-year-old Dominican has 16 steals and will develop some power when he fills out. Playing in low-pressure Minnesota will also help the youngster.
• The only San Diego Padres hitter worth having in your lineup should be first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Already faced with playing their 81 home games in a hitter's nightmare, Petco Park, you shouldn't waste your time with any Padres batter, unless it's Gonzalez.
DUE UP
Watch the on-deck circle or bullpen for these players:
• It's just a matter of time before Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta takes over as Colorado's regular catcher. The former top prospect, who struggled in his first stint as the No. 1 catcher in 2007, was 5 for 8 in two starts this week. Iannetta is hitting .328, 3 HR, 14 RBI, and starter Yorvit Torrealba is at .227.
• Garrett Olson is looking to be everything Adam Loewen was supposed to be for the Orioles. The 24-year-old lefty is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA and has 15 Ks in 18 1/3 innings. The highly-touted and injury-plagued Loewen has not been able to get it together for the past two years.
• Wladimir Balentien had 6 HR in just 63 ABs at Triple A Tacoma this season before being called up by the Mariners. While Safeco Field is not exactly a home run haven, Balentien already has 3 HR in 11 games for a lifeless Seattle lineup.
3 OUTS
If you haven't released these players, you might want to:
• Bill Hall had a career year in 2006 with 35 HR, but that's been the lone highlight of his seven big-league seasons. Much like Dodgers center fielder Andruw Jones, Hall is averse to hitting to the opposite field and thus his batting average suffers. Hall is at .201 and doesn't look to snap out of it anytime soon.
• Chad Cordero was a former No. 1 pick for the Expos/Nationals, but he might have been overworked the past few seasons. He is currently on the DL with a torn shoulder muscle. Even if Cordero returns it will be tough for him to regain the 47-save status he had in 2005.
• Manny Corpas was stellar after taking over for closer Brian Fuentes in 2007 as the Rockies ran to the NL pennant. But this season, hitters have figured Corpas out as the right-hander has been hammered for a 7.58 ERA and lost the closer's job. Until Corpas finds a way to get hitters out again, there's no need for him on your roster.
