A major-outlet computer prediction model now has the Miami Dolphins with better than a 50 percent likelihood of winning in only two remaining games all season. OK let's check the math. A current 1-2 record plus two more wins -- hang on, my calculator is smoking -- equals a 3-13 season. Or so predicts ESPN's Football Power Index.
The FPI has the Fins favored (50%-plus win likelihood) from here only in this coming Sunday’s home game vs. Tennessee (52.3%) and then Oct. 22 here vs. the Jets (71.8%). And I'd remind that the Titans were seen as a dangerous "it" team before this past weekend's spanking, while the Jets recently clobbered Miami 20-7.
To be fair, Miami's win probability is in the 40s in four games from here. It's all guesswork anyway. The point is, right now, a season topping out around 7-9 and capable of plunging to 3-13 has begun to seem likelier than a rally to a second straight playoff berth.
Something as bad as the 3-13 the FPI forecasts would put Miami in very interesting (i.e. very high) draft territory, in a 2018 NFL Draft in which three quarterbacks -- USC's Sam Darnold, Wyoming's Josh Allen and UCLA's Josh Rosen -- are routinely pegged for the top five overall. So. If Miami does finish as bad as this computer model spits out, the temptation to draft Ryan Tannehill's replacement could be intense, as much as Jay Cutler’s performance thus far has made Tannehill in his injury-absence look better than ever.
Hey, this is all speculation, I grant you. Premature. Maybe even reckless! Then again, when your team has scored two TDs in 12 quarters and but for luck would be 0-3, it helps to pass the time.