Like a senator caught holding a bribe or a woman not his wife, I have little choice but to admit my caché of available excuses is running thin. ''Off to a slow start'' no longer seems to apply. ''Temporary slump'' might explain my record but for the word temporary. ''Heavily medicated while making picks'' is a last-resort option held in reserve. Meantime, let's just lay my pair of 3's sadly on the table and admit I am having an awful season -- one whose only saving grace is that the plain old law of averages suggest I might soon stumble blindly upon a decent week.

• Thursday pick: Patriots (-3) over Jets 24-17.

• Last week: 8-6 overall (.571); 6-7-1 vs. spread (.462).

• Season: 83-61 (.576); 62-72-10 vs. spread (.463).

This week's selections:

RAIDERS (2-7) AT DOLPHINS (5-4)

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: CBS

• Line: MIA by 10 ½ • Cote: MIA 24-16

Oakland's offense is nearly as pathetic as its costumed, cartoon fans. Miami winning by a rout would not surprise. But there are caution flags. As winners of three straight and hosting New England next, the Dolphins cannot help but be a combo of overconfident and looking ahead. It's human nature, and no amount of preaching by Rev. Sparano can stop it. It portends a game akin to last week's narrow escape vs. Seattle. JaMarcus Russell should return, and Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas will get enough done on the ground to keep Raiders respectably in this thing.

COWBOYS (5-4) AT REDSKINS (6-3)

• When: 8:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: NBC

• Line: DAL by 1 ½ • Cote: DAL 27-24

Tough call, but Tony Romo's return to action after a month's absence in this division-rivalry prime-timer tipped it for the GOTW panel. (Terrell Owens vs. enemy DeAngelo Hall is a tasty side dish). To me, though, what swings the pick is Clinton Portis (ankle) being very questionable for Washington, a game-time decision that no doubt is giving his fantasy owners fits. I'd probably take 'Skins at home with a healthy Portis. But with the NFL's best back not named Adrian Peterson seeming unlikely to play, I'll side nervously with Tony and da Boys.

TITANS (9-0) AT JAGUARS (4-5)

• When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday • TV: CBS

• Line: TEN by 3 • Cote: JAC 20-17

'AAWWK!'' calls the Upset Bird. ``Did I say Titans would lose last week, too? Well, OK, yeah. But this time I mean it. Aawwk!'' All five of Jax's losses have been by a touchdown or less (including a close one to Tennessee in September), and ruining their rival's perfection would be a season-maker for Jags. ``Cork-poppin' time!'' notes U-Bird. ``Calling Daawwk Shula and the '72 Daaawwwk!''

RAMS (2-7) AT 49ERS (2-7)

• When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: SF by 6 • Cote: SF 31-20

This was so easily the worst game of the week that the Dog panel deliberated only two minutes before adjourning to the Swill 'n Grill Tavern. Two 2-7 teams with nine straight losses between them -- that's Dog heaven! Like Niners at home to give pants-droppin' Mike Singletary his first win as interim coach. You gotta love Frank Gore vs. Lous' awful run defense, especially if you happen to be Frank Gore.

BRONCOS (5-4) AT FALCONS (6-3)

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