To start, the Marlins won 11 of their first 12 games.

To finish, they probably need to do just as well -- if not better -- to reach the playoffs.

``I think we have to be pretty close to perfect,'' veteran reliever Brendan Donnelly said.

With a dozen games to play, even that might not be good enough.

The desperate Marlins open a do-or-die series against the first-place Philadelphia Phillies with Tuesday's doubleheader at Land Shark Stadium. They are eight games behind the Phillies in the National League East and five games back of the Colorado Rockies in the wild-card race.

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Marlins' chances of reaching the playoffs are bleak -- less than 1 percent. The website estimates the odds of overtaking the Phillies and winning the division at 1 in 500. The wild card? Roughly a 1-in-125 chance.

``It's realistic enough where we have to win every game, it seems,'' Marlins utility player Ross Gload said.

The Marlins have never won 12 consecutive games in franchise history. Their longest winning streak is nine in a row.

But crazy things have happened.

The 2007 Phillies, for example, were seven games behind the New York Mets with 17 games to play. But they caught the collapsing Mets and won the division.

That same year, the Rockies won 13 of their final 14 games to force a one-game playoff for the wild card. They knocked off the San Diego Padres in a 13-inning thriller and made it all the way to the World Series before losing to the Boston Red Sox.

The 1964 Phillies had a 6 ½-game lead with 12 games to go, but lost 10 of them and failed to reach the postseason.

``We've got a shot,'' the Marlins' Wes Helms said.

BEEN THERE

Helms should know. He was a member of that '07 Phillies team that caught the Mets, and he has been reminding the younger Marlins that anything is possible.

So has Jeff Conine, who now serves as special assistant to team president David Samson.

Conine was a member of the '07 Mets team that crashed.

``We can get hot and they can get cold over a matter of days,'' Helms said. ``If we don't win, nothing matters.''

The Marlins have six games remaining against the Phillies, the defending World Series champs.

``They won the World Series last year,'' Helms said. ``They haven't won it this year. That's the way I look at it. They have a great team last year and did again this year. But we've played 'em well this year.''

NEEDING HELP

The Marlins have gone 5-7 against the Phillies this season, but swept them in Philadelphia in early August, the last time they played each other. But the Marlins, even if they get hot, know they will need help.

``If Colorado wins every game the rest of the year, it doesn't matter how we finish,'' Gload said. ``For most of the season, you say it's in our hands, that if we take care of business, we'll be all right. That's not necessarily the case now. We need some help from other teams.''

Said Donnelly: ``We have six games left with the Phillies. A six-game sweep is difficult to pull off, even if you're playing the local high school team. If we look ahead and do too much math, what's the point if we don't win our games?''

The Marlins know they are long shots. But they also know the standings don't yet show them as officially eliminated.

``We have two weeks left and we're still in this thing,'' Helms said. ``There are a lot of teams sitting around, making plans and thinking about what they're going to do after the season is over.''

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