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LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN

Governments must improve transparency

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For the first time in six years Latin America and the Caribbean will see their economies shrink this year. That is also why 2009 could still be best remembered as the year when regional leaders decided that they could not afford to let a crisis go to waste.

A few weeks from now Latin America will enter a busy political season with seven presidential contests in 13 months. It is easy to predict that the worst economic recession in 80 years will play a role in voters' choices. More difficult to know is what kind of leaders will emerge.

But whether they are labeled old left, new left, liberal, neoliberal or conservative, these new leaders, as their predecessors, will likely embrace pragmatic solutions. This pragmatism is alive and well in the region, helping reduce tremendous inequality between rich and poor -- and it will prove particularly important to recover from the global recession.

Hundreds of international executives and government leaders will converge in Miami for the 13th annual Miami Herald Americas Conference this week to discuss political and economic challenges ahead during the post-crisis.

Central to their deliberations should be a simple idea: Human concerns should go hand in hand with economic ones. Or as World Bank President Robert Zoellick has insisted since the beginning of the crisis: The global financial disaster does not have to become a human and social disaster.

From 2003 to 2008, 60 million people were lifted out of poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean. Few periods -- perhaps none -- have seen so much progress in so little time. Yet today, the World Bank projections so far indicate that the crisis will push eight million Latin Americans back into poverty -- that is, back to living on less than $4 a day.

In comparison to other regions, the road to recovery may be shorter for Latin America. Thanks to improved financial regulation and supervision, the region has weathered the downturn without massive currency devaluations, bank collapses, debt defaults, inflationary spikes or capital flights. The same cannot be said of Eastern Europe, for instance, where the downturn triggered a banking crisis, devaluation of local currency and rising inflation.

As comforting as that might be, average growth in Latin America and the Caribbean has shifted down from more than 4 percent in 2008 to minus 2 percent to 2.5 percent in 2009. We expect growth to recover in 2010 to around 3 percent.

These averages mask important differences in growth among countries. Mexico's downturn, in particular, is a major driver behind this year's forecast. Still, there do seem to be some emerging challenges to all. These include permanent loss of human capital, middle-class unemployment, lack of funds for stimulus packages and scarcity of foreign financing.

Despite all these, the crisis offers an opportunity for the region to unleash its enormous potential.

Consider trade. Many countries in the region, large and small, are seeing their currencies appreciate uncomfortably. This puts a premium on trade competitiveness -- even if only to preserve a slice of a smaller global trade market. Many of the long-delayed reforms that make integration worthy, from infrastructure to tertiary education and property rights, will now become even more urgent.

This crisis should also prompt new thinking about universal subsidies.

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