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FOCUS ON ISRAEL

Obama naive about Mideast

fjghitis@hotmail.com

JERUSALEM -- On Sept. 11, 2009 -- just a few days ago -- Israel was attacked with Katyusha rockets fired across its northern border from Lebanon. The episode did not make a lot of headlines. Nobody died. Israelis breathed a little faster but continued life without any perceivable change.

After all, Israel comes under attack frequently, far more frequently than people outside its borders realize. They live under threat every day. Understanding that fact of life is indispensable for anyone trying to help bring peace to the Middle East -- including President Barack Obama, who has shown crucial gaps in his knowledge of the region.

President Obama is a highly intelligent man; that's why I am convinced that he will learn from the awful mess he has made of his early efforts for peace.

Back in the spring, when Obama enjoyed sky-high approval ratings, he took on an unpopular Israeli prime minister and presented demands whose tone and substance -- especially tone -- filled Israelis with fear. Perhaps Obama thought by loudly pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he would make Israelis turn against their leader. Obama may have expected that Netanyahu would lose his job if he defied America. Then Washington would have a more agreeable partner in the prime minister's office in Jerusalem.

Netanyahu had just become prime minister when Obama's efforts started. In a complicated turn of Israeli politics, his party had finished second, not first, in the elections. Netanyahu was weak. Obama felt strong.

Israel is misunderstood

Obama was right in believing Israelis care deeply about their relationship with America. But he did not understand Israel nearly as well as he thought.

Israelis love the United States. But the new U.S. president failed to see just how vulnerable they feel. Obama was correct in thinking that most here are willing to give up the West Bank (not Jerusalem) for the sake of peace. But they will not give up anything if they believe what will come next is more attacks and more war.

Israelis have seen the results of territorial withdrawals. They were not impressed. They have endured almost daily Palestinian suicide bombings in buses, restaurants and hotels. They have seen towns near Gaza struggle under almost daily Palestinian rocket fire even after all Jews withdrew from the strip. No country on earth would volunteer for more of that, especially while a sworn enemy, Iran, works on a nuclear program. Obama pressured Israel without addressing the core of its reality.

Obama also made a mess on the Palestinian side, complicating life for the Palestinian leadership. Now that Washington has told the world that it demands Israel freeze settlement activity, it has made it nearly impossible for Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority, to sit down with Israel unless Netanyahu agrees to all of Obama's demands. After all, how can the Palestinian leader demand less of Israel than Washington does? What would the rival Hamas say? Mahmoud Abbas looks over his shoulder at the radical Hamas for every move he takes.

Israelis under siege

Israelis, for their part, keep their eyes darting in many directions. From the north they see rockets coming. From the east, in Iran, they hear a rabidly anti-Israel regime say it will talk to the international community about everything, but insists its nuclear program is nonnegotiable, even as it continues to arm Hamas and Hezbollah -- which say they demand an end to all of Israel, not just Israel's presence in the West Bank.

Toward the west, Israelis watch to see just how Obama responds to Iran while he pressures Israel to squeeze its borders to within a handful of miles of its biggest cities.

Feeling pressured to become more vulnerable, Israelis have rallied around their prime minister. The latest poll shows Netanyahu's approval at a solid 65 percent, much higher than Obama's and far higher than the dismal numbers he had before Obama started publicly pushing him.

If Obama had understood Israel better, he would have kept the decibel level much lower while more explicitly reassuring Israelis that any concessions they make will be matched with credible security guarantees. Then he might have gotten more of what he wanted.

Obama wants to use the upcoming gathering at the United Nations to restart negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. That will happen if his envoy George Mitchell can unravel the mess Obama made. With rockets still raining in the Middle East, Obama needs to learn quickly if he wants to be a U.S. president that leaves a legacy of peace instead of yet another one who looks across the ocean at more fighting in the Middle East.

Frida Ghitis writes about global affairs.

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