William Gray and Phil Klotzbach reduced their seasonal storm forecast on Tuesday, now calling for 10 named tropical storms including four hurricanes. They predict that two of the hurricanes will be major, with winds greater than 110 mph.

The Colorado State University forecasters say this season should be tempered by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, as well as a strengthening El Niño, the atmospheric condition that suppresses storm formation.

Gray noted that El Niño increases wind shear, which decreases hurricane activity.

In June, Gray and Klotzbach predicted 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them intense. The average year sees 11 named storms including six hurricanes, two of them intense.