The disturbance in the west-central Caribbean has become a little bit better defined on Saturday morning, and the chances of it developing into a tropical depression or storm have gone up in the latest outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center.
In the center's 2 a.m. Friday update, the disturbance was reported to be 100 miles south of Jamaica, and it poses no immediate threat to the U.S. coastline. But as it sits over the next two days, heavy rains threaten to bring flash flooding and mudslides to parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and southeastern Cuba.
Its future path remains uncertain.
For now, the hurricane center gives the disturbance a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 48 hours. Earlier forecasts put those chances at 10 percent.
Another disturbance, this one some 325 miles east of the Mexican coast, is producing limited shower activity and upper-level winds are not favorable for development.
Forecasters say there is nearly a zero percent chance of this system developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next two days.