CAMPAIGN 2008
Broward legislative districts' lean to left could aid 2 challengers
An anti-Republican shift in Broward's swing legislative districts could provide an opening for two Democratic political newcomers.
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BY BREANNE GILPATRICK
bgilpatrick@MiamiHerald.com
When Republicans redistricted the state in 2002, they carefully carved certain Broward districts to create several GOP-leaning seats in the overwhelmingly Democratic county.
By drawing lines that slither up the coast or zig-zag across Broward, the Legislature took a county where more than half of registered voters were Democrats and created districts where voters picked Bush and Dole over Clinton, chose Jeb over MacKay and McBride and sent the county's only Republican legislators to Tallahassee.
But since then, the districts have seen an influx of Independent voters and younger, Democratic-leaning residents at the expense of the old Republican majorities.
With the presidential race in full swing, the shift suggests Democratic voters in these districts are likely to line up for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.
As those voters continue down the ballot, the result could benefit two lesser-known Democratic challengers trying to unseat well-moneyed Republican legislators.
There's no guarantee the challengers will pull upsets, but how far they come -- or even succeed -- will help reveal just how far the districts have bent from the GOP.
''They're going to be a laboratory,'' South Florida pollster Jim Kane said of the two districts. ``You will see just how big the coattails of Obama will be in this election. Those races won't be a given like they were four or eight years ago.''
Broward's two main swing districts snake from Fort Lauderdale up the coast to Palm Beach County, creating seats filled with wealthy pockets of Republicans in high-rise condos and high-end neighborhoods east of U.S. 1.
THE CANDIDATES
Republican state Sen. Jeff Atwater, of North Palm Beach, faces Broward Realtor Linda Bird in District 25, while Republican state Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff, of Fort Lauderdale, has a repeat challenge by Democrat Chris Chiari in District 91.
Both incumbents have a tremendous advantage in fundraising and name recognition. Atwater has raised nearly $2.6 million while Bogdanoff has more than $433,000 -- more than 15 times as much their opponents.
But they are also in districts with a much higher degree of demographic difficulty than when either was elected.
Ten years ago, 49 percent of the registered voters in Atwater's district were Republicans. Today, it's 39 percent.
In Bogdanoff's district, 42 percent of voters are registered Republican today, compared to 51 percent 10 years ago.
In 2006, the Democratic sea change ended the 26-year career of U.S. Rep. Clay Shaw, when voters picked Democrat Ron Klein to represent the Broward-Palm Beach congressional district -- which covers much of the same territory as Atwater's state Senate seat.
VOTING PATTERN
That race confirms what experts say is the biggest political worry for the GOP: Those districts aren't just registering less Republican; they're voting that way too.
A Miami Herald analysis of the districts' performance since 1992 found that, until recently, voters typically chose Republican presidential, gubernatorial and cabinet candidates by margins that made them redder than not only Broward and Palm Beach counties, but the state.
But in 2004, the districts -- particularly Atwater's -- started to lean to the left.
In Atwater's district, 2004 voters picked Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry 62-37 percent. Republican Sen. Mel Martinez won the district by a mere 0.13 percent.
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