Posted on Sat, May. 24, 2008

Billed as a relaxed gathering of pals amid Arizona's scenic red hills, the Memorial Day weekend barbecue at John McCain's ranch was a high-pressure affair for one of its most important guests: Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

Crist had just become a nationally broadcast name as one of a handful of possible McCain running mates gathered in Sedona. And he didn't get on the short list just because McCain is fond of him.

McCain needs Crist because McCain needs Florida.

Republicans say they can't win the White House in November without Florida's 27 Electoral College votes -- exactly 10 percent of the total needed for victory. And no Republican can deliver Florida like Crist, who already helped McCain seal the party nomination in the Sunshine State's winter primary.

''There's tremendous pressure on Crist,'' said Ed Rollins, a top Republican strategist. ``Crist has to deliver Florida. He gets tarnished if he doesn't. He needs to prove he has the same organization and ability to deliver the state that Jeb [Bush] had.''

STAYING COOL

It's unlikely the affable and sunny Crist is feeling the heat. He always stays cool. Indeed, he's so conscious about the image that aides set up mini-fans for him at news conference podiums so he doesn't perspire on camera.

But Republicans elsewhere are sweating it.

They're nervous that McCain doesn't have the cash or organization of the Bush-Cheney '04 juggernaut. They know McCain could wilt in this toxic political atmosphere of a bad economy, high gas prices and an unpopular Iraq war.

And whether Crist is on the ticket or not -- a topic he avoids talking about -- they know he can only do so much for McCain.

Barack Obama knows it, too.

''Gov. Crist is a popular figure in this state,'' Obama, the likely Democratic nominee, told The Miami Herald. ``But people will make their judgment on my ideas and John McCain's ideas.''

Right now, Florida voters like McCain just a little bit more.

Polls show McCain clings to a narrow lead here over Obama -- bouyed by Democratic infighting as Hillary Clinton slugs it out. Also, McCain's prisoner-of-war biography and silver hair plays well in an elderly state studded with military bases.

But where McCain must win Florida to win the White House, Obama must simply make a show of fighting hard for Florida, the nation's fourth most-populous state. The reason: Among the largest states, Democrats are all but guaranteed California and New York, while only Texas is a Republican given. And McCain can't afford to win only one of the big four.

So the Democratic Illinois senator needs to spend just enough time and money to force the Arizona senator to spend more time and money here. That would allow Obama to focus more on must-win states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

THE TASKS

In Florida, Obama will have to shore up Hispanic support, and ensure that Republicans don't sever the Jewish community from him. He has some make-up work in rural Central Florida and the Panhandle. There, voters don't take kindly to the anti-patriotic statements of his former pastor nor Obama's comments concerning ''bitter'' voters clinging to guns and religion.

Despite ignoring the state through the primary, Obama said he'll run a ''substantial'' campaign here and ``will be competitive in Florida.''

Obama's Miami fundraiser, Kirk Wagar, said the campaign will unify Democrats, attract independents and steam-roll Republicans for the first time in years here.

''We're not going to just do well this year, but with 10,000 people signed up and ready to got to work, you're looking at an effect on the Democratic Party here for a generation,'' Wagar said.

That's where Crist comes in.

Former state GOP chief David ''DJ'' Johnson said his party is ready with its well-honed vote-turnout machine with Crist in the driver's seat. He downplayed the pressure Crist is under, noting Jeb Bush's experience in 2000 and 2004.

''Pressure is when your brother is on the ticket,'' he said. He said Republican U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez and state GOP chief Jim Greer are also on the line.

CAMPAIGN SUPPORT

Though conventional wisdom holds that Crist won't be on the ticket, it probably doesn't matter, said Republican lawyer-lobbyist Justin Sayfie, a former Jeb Bush spokesman who runs the must-read state news blog SayfieReview.

Crist will likely campaign hard for his friend anyway, Sayfie said, and will be a ''two-fer'' for McCain: The governor can help raise McCain's profile and popularity here, while enabling him to spend more time campaigning elsewhere.

''Florida is a big, expensive state with eight media markets,'' Sayfie said. ``How much will it cost for McCain to defend Florida -- 10, 15, 20 million? What can you do with that money in Ohio, or in Michigan?''

Sayfie compared Crist to a star basketball player who lifts the whole team ``like Michael Jordan or Dwyane Wade shooting in a clutch situation. You don't think of it as pressure. You do what comes naturally.''

Here's what Crist has a history of doing naturally: campaign and win.

He was one of only two Republicans to win a governor's mansion nationwide in 2006. During the campaign, the Republican party made sure he was one of the nation's most-advertised candidates for any office in the country.

Crist also became the face of the voter-approved property tax-cut plan last Jan. 29. When he decided to endorse McCain at the time, his tax-cut campaign used its voter-call lists to help the presidential candidate tap a pool of nontraditional primary voters. That helped seal his win here and beyond by breaking rival Mitt Romney, who also attended the McCain barbecue as well as Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and others.

Yet Crist's popularity isn't what it used to be.

The Republican-led Legislature just finished cutting $5 billion from the state budget in a year's time. Crist's poll numbers dropped by double digits from the sky-high 70s. The fact he hasn't delivered on the hype of big property-tax cuts and meaningful property-insurance reform hasn't helped either.

Crist's approval ratings remain strong, though, because he's highly popular with independents and Democrats.

But hardcore conservatives are suspicious of Crist's moderate fiscal policies and social stances on abortion and gay marriage. Some bemoan the fact that he's no Jeb Bush. With Crist's shallow grasp of his own initiatives, his populist positions look like self-promotion to them.

As a middle-grounder, Crist doesn't add much to a McCain ticket outside Florida. McCain's already suffering because the Republican base of hard-core conservatives ''don't love him the way they loved George Bush,'' said the director of the Democrats' state House campaigns, Steve Schale.

''In 04, they were able to bring every breathing Republican to the polls. They can't do that this year,'' Schale said, noting Democrats have outgained Republicans in new voter registrations, including, for the first time, the Hispanic demographic. Democrats also expect the 600,000 registered blacks who didn't vote in the 2004 elections will be far more energized to come to the polls this year.

And if the campaign season turns ultra-partisan with Crist on the ticket, his poll numbers could drop further among independents and Democrats. Also, shadowy attack groups are likely to try to make hay out of a paternity dispute involving Crist nearly 20 years ago.

ON THE JOB

When the issue first arose as he was running for governor in 2006, Crist simply called the attack ''scurrilous'' and cruised to a victory in the 2006 Republican primary. He never looked back, racking up wins and boosting his name identification through an aggressive travel schedule that has him flying to every Florida major media market on a weekly basis.

Just last week, he embarked on a multi-city tour to tout his health initiatives over three days while all three presidential candidates stumped across the state. Then, on Thursday, he flew to New York for fundraisers and a bill signing on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

A CNBC reporter cornered him at the Friday barbecue, but Crist downplayed his presence as merely a chance to spend ''social time'' with McCain. The exchange underscored his national media reach -- from cable news talk shows to CBS' Face the Nation, where he appeared last week with Rollins, who managed Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign.

Asked what he thought of his co-guest, Rollins chuckled: ``I thought he was very tan, very Floridian. He's articulate. He's carrying the party line about bipartisanship but some people think that means give the Democrats everything they want. Every day, he's auditioning to be the running mate.''

Miami Herald staff writer Beth Reinhard contributed to this report.