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Blacks, Hispanics signal Florida shift

mcaputo@MiamiHerald.com

Buoyed by massive black support and the crucial votes of Hispanics, Democrat Barack Obama captured Florida by winning on the issues and striking deep into Republican strongholds.

Obama's Florida win over John McCain was a stinging loss for Republicans who control the Legislature and governor's mansion and, until just two months ago, were openly questioning whether the Democrat would campaign full force in the nation's biggest swing state.

But hard financial times, McCain's gaffe in Jacksonville where he said the ''fundamentals of the economy are strong'' and Obama's juggernaut of a campaign inalterably changed the race.

Obama beat McCain by a 51-48 percent margin, and captured a lopsided share of Florida votes from young people and first-time voters, winning comfortably among independents, and by besting McCain among Hispanic voters by double digits, according to Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International exit poll of voters.

Once a reliable Republican voting bloc, Hispanics have shifted more toward Democrats in recent years as South and Central Americans started swelling the voter rolls and curbing the influence of Miami-Dade's Cuban Americans, who comprise about 70 percent of the county's Republican voters.

''The politics driven by the embargo and Fidel Castro are becoming long gone,'' said Obama's Florida campaign manager, Steve Schale, who noted that younger Cuban Americans seemed to be shifting toward the Democrats as well.

''The U.S. relationship with Castro, at the end of the day,'' Schale said, ``is a minor concern when you can't get a job or find health insurance for your children.''

CASTRO KEPT OUT

In a nod to the new political climate, Miami-Dade's three congressional Republican incumbents -- all Cuban Americans -- kept their seats by emphasizing the economy more than Castro.

Obama won Miami-Dade by about 133,000 -- triple Democrat John Kerry's margin in 2004. Part of the reason: Most Cuban precincts didn't support McCain as strongly as precincts with the highest black populations backed Obama. Obama's biggest vote margin was in Broward: 241,000.

The Democrat poured an unprecedented sum into the state on field offices, voter registrations, get-out-the-vote efforts and television ads, which drive poll numbers in a state as big as Florida. Obama might have bested McCain by as much as a 4-1 margin in TV ads, Republicans say.

Obama's well-broadcast message: McCain is an out-of-touch President Bush clone who can't bring change.

The exit polls suggest the message stuck.

About 56 percent of voters said McCain is not ''in touch with people,'' while 57 percent said Obama was in touch. About 47 percent of voters said McCain would continue Bush's policies, while about as many thought he would bring change. But of those voters who said that ''bringing about change'' was the most important issue, 92 percent favored Obama.

More voters also said they were contacted by mail, phone or in person for Obama -- a sign of a more robust get-out-the-vote effort by the Democrats.

The campaign made an unprecedented push to bank early votes, giving the Democrats an edge of up to 363,000 ballots cast before Election Day even started. By contrast, in 2004, Republicans led by about 50,000 ballots before Election Day.

McCain's chief Florida fundraiser, Brian Ballard, estimated the Democrats spent up to $75 million in the state for Obama.

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