TALLAHASSEE -- Barack Obama has opened up a 49-42 percent lead over John McCain in Florida, according to a new Miami Herald poll showing the Democrat earns high marks on the economy and is drawing significant support from the swing voters who decide elections in the nation's largest swing state.

Boosting Obama: independent voters, who back him over McCain by a 57-22 percent margin -- a 38-point shift toward the Democrat since the last poll in September. Both were conducted for The Miami Herald, St. Petersburg Times and Bay News 9 by SEA Polling and Strategic Design and The Polling Co.

The poll shows multiple hurdles are in McCain's way:

• He is losing in Southwest Florida, a once-reliable Republican base. And he's ahead in only one region: conservative North Florida, by 7 percentage points.

• Obama has tied McCain among voters over 65 years old. They backed McCain by seven more percentage points than Obama in last month's poll, which was taken just as news of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy precipitated the economic crisis.

• Only 35 percent of Floridians polled say McCain demonstrated more leadership during the crisis and has a better plan to fix it. Compare that to the 45 percent who say Obama demonstrated better leadership and almost half of all voters who say Obama has a better economic plan.

FINANCIAL CRISIS

McCain's campaign in Florida and elsewhere was damaged by troubles out of his hands, said Kellyanne Conway, a Republican who owns The Polling Co.

She said the ''superseding events'' of the financial crisis hurt McCain, who led by 2 percentage points last month. But, she said, McCain's campaign made matters worse by focusing too heavily on attacking Obama for his association with a Vietnam-era radical terrorist.

''Trying to connect Barack Obama to Bill Ayers rather than trying to connect McCain to the average voter on the economy has also been dubious,'' Conway said.

Conway noted that ''Florida's still in play'' in such a politically and financially volatile atmosphere. She said, for instance, that seniors -- 11 percent of whom are undecided -- could start supporting McCain again in bigger numbers. Despite Obama's 7 percentage point edge, the race remains within the 3.5 percentage point error margin of the poll, which surveyed 800 registered voters.

LOSING MOMENTUM

Though a Quinnipiac University poll Thursday resembled The Miami Herald's survey, three statewide polls this week showed Obama losing momentum in the face of McCain's renewed attack over the Democrat's recent statement that he wants to ''spread the wealth around'' by increasing taxes on families earning more than $250,000 yearly.

In the Miami Herald poll, McCain holds a slight edge among Hispanics, buoyed by the strong support of Cuban Americans, who comprise about 70 percent of the Republican voter rolls in Miami-Dade County. Evangelical voters also strongly back McCain.

Also, Obama hasn't cracked 50 percent in most polls, a reflection of doubts about his experience, his race or Florida's right-leaning electorate in statewide elections, pollsters say.

The growing importance of the economy and Obama's success in talking about the issue appears to be a deciding factor in winning independent votes, which comprise about a fifth of Florida's electorate.

Whoever wins the independent vote wins Florida. And whoever wins Florida will likely win the White House.

Join the discussion

The Miami Herald is pleased to provide this opportunity to share information, experiences and observations about what's in the news. Some of the comments may be reprinted elsewhere in the site or in the newspaper. We encourage lively, open debate on the issues of the day, and ask that you refrain from profanity, hate speech, personal comments and remarks that are off point. In order to post comments, you must be a registered user of MiamiHerald.com. Your username will show along with the comments you post. Thank you for taking the time to offer your thoughts.

     Showing: Oldest first Newest first Most-recommended first Least-recommended first

@Nyx.AuthorDisplayName@ wrote on @Nyx.PostedAtTime@:

@Nyx.repliedToText@

@Nyx.replyAnswerText@

Reply to this Comment @Nyx.Recommender@ @Nyx.AbuseReporter@