Poll: Florida gay-marriage ban likely to pass
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BY MARC CAPUTO
mcaputo@MiamiHerald.com
TALLAHASSEE -- Florida voters look close to passing a gay-marriage ban and rejecting a community college tax and are largely undecided about a handful of property-tax issues, according to a new statewide poll concerning the state's proposed constitutional amendments.
Regardless of the topic, there's a common theme in voters' preferences: Simplicity, said Brad Coker, pollster for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Voters have clear opinions about those amendments that are relatively easy to understand or that have simple titles or buzzwords.
So the ''Florida Marriage Protection Amendment'' garners wide support -- 55 percent in support; 34 percent opposed. And the amendment that would allow local communities to raise the sales tax to help pay for community college is losing by a 37 to 40 percent margin.
'In Florida, `tax' is no longer a three letter word,'' said Coker. ``It's a four letter word.''
Yet the poll shows that the electorate doesn't seem to have a strong preference for the amendments that would actually give homeowners or businesses a potential property tax cut. And that's because of the complexity of the amendments, Coker said.
Consider:
The amendment to prohibit tax assessment increases for someone who adds hurricane shutters or solar panels is leading by a 29 to 26 percent margin. Undecided: 45 percent. The amendment to give a tax break to those who agree to set aside conservation lands is leading by 37 to 19 percent. Undecided: 44 percent.
The amendment to help shield marina owners from big tax-assessment increases leads 33 to 20 percent. Undecided: 47 percent.
However, because it takes a 60 percent vote to approve a constitutional amendment, the property-tax plans could pass if the undecided voters don't cast a ballot on thoseissues and if support continues to outpace opposition by a ratio of 3 to 2.
Coker, though, said he expected undecided voters will likely cast a ballot in favor of the gay-marriage amendment, thereby supplying it with the additional 5 percentage points it needs to pass.
''The undecideds always seem to break more strongly toward sort of the more anti-gay side of the issue,'' Coker said.
But not if Florida Red & Blue can help it. The group plans to run an ad painting the amendment as ''vague'' and a threat to domestic-partner benefits, even for heterosexual seniors. Supporters of Amendment 2 say that's a scare tactic.
Gov. Charlie Crist said he supports defining marriage ''between one man and one woman.'' Yet Crist said he's staying out of all the amendment fights because ``I've got my hands pretty full as it is.''
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