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Charlie Crist's 'shine' fades in poll

mcaputo@MiamiHerald.com

Hit by a bad economy and election-year politics, Gov. Charlie Crist's popularity is starting to fade a bit, according to a new poll.

About 57 percent of Floridians rate Crist's job performance as ''excellent'' or ''good,'' the poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Research says. About 41 percent say he's doing a fair to poor job. That's a 23 percent increase since June 2007, when his job-approval rating was sky-high at 70 percent. Crist's new numbers might have been slightly lower, but he's likely enjoying a bounce from his week of statewide media exposure handling Tropical Storm Fay from the Keys to the Space Coast to the state capital.

The poll also shows Floridians are likely to approve a constitutional gay-marriage ban, favor offshore oil-drilling by big margins and probably won't support a so-called ''tax swap'' plan that a judge struck from the Nov. 4 ballot anyway.

Those survey results don't surprise Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker as much as Crist's numbers, which bring the Republican into the same strata as former Gov. Jeb Bush, whose Mason-Dixon job-approval poll average in his eight years was about 58 percent.

Crist, who fashioned himself as a more bipartisan leader than Bush, has become less popular with independents and Democrats now. But he has increased his support among Republicans, just like the more polarizing Bush, according to the poll of 625 likely voters with an error margin of 4 percent.

''The shine is fading a little bit. The numbers are becoming partisan,'' Coker said. ``We're getting back to Jeb Bush days. He's being viewed in a more partisan light.''

Crist made one of his most conservative moves Thursday by appointing a hard-line pro-life judge, Charles Canady, to sit on the Florida Supreme Court. Crist also recently re-affirmed his support for the constitutional gay-marriage ban, which voters favor 57-36. Though it takes 60 percent to pass such an amendment, Coker said he expects that, once they're ''in the privacy of a voting booth,'' more people will vote for the proposal than they acknowledged when they were polled.

While North Floridians view Crist most favorably -- 65 percent -- South Floridians are the most negative about Crist, with only 45 percent saying he's doing an excellent or good job. Not only is South Florida the state's liberal bastion, it was the center for cries for big property-tax cuts that Crist didn't deliver. Coker said it was natural that Crist's poll numbers would fall from a high of 70 percent because, in the law of political popularity, that which rises high must fall.

But the bad economy and Crist's alliance with Republican President John McCain have also taken a toll on Crist's numbers as well, Coker said.

It also wasn't a good time for Crist to be mentioned as a possible vice presidential pick for McCain. A Mason-Dixon poll on Wednesday showed that only 17 percent of Floridians appeared to want Crist on the ticket. Crist did little to dispel talk of his possible pick, insiders say, but he's not likely to be chosen when McCain appears with his newly named running mate, probably Friday in Ohio.

Asked if he'd be there, Crist smiled Thursday and said: ``I'm going to be in Florida.''

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