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Sobel likely will avoid Senate seat recount

bgilpatrick@MiamiHerald.com

With only one precinct to go, former state representative Eleanor Sobel will likely win by a wide enough margin to avoid a recount in the bare-knuckle primary for one southeast Broward Senate seat.

Sobel, a Broward School Board member was facing two other former state representatives -- Ken Gottlieb and Tim Ryan -- for the seat held by term-limited Senate Democratic Leader Steve Geller, who leaves Tallahassee this year after 20 years in the Legislature.

The closely watched race, which turned nasty in its final weeks was expected to be close. And late Tuesday night Sobel's lead over Gottlieb hovered around 100 votes, a less-than-1-percent margin that had some wondering about a recount.

But by Wednesday afternoon, that lead had widened to roughly 600 votes -- or a margin of about 3 percent -- taking her out of recount territory.

Under state law, an automatic recount is triggered if a legislative candidate wins by less than half a percentage point. And if the recount narrows that margin to less than 0.25 percent, there must be a manual recount of all undervotes and overvotes.

Sobel's apparent razor-thin victory over Gottlieb and Ryan was sent over the top when the Broward School Board member was able to poach some voters from her opponents' old legislative districts.

''I made some new friends in Plantation and Pembroke Pines,'' said Sobel.

Sobel will face only a write-in candidate in November, making her the likely heir to the Broward state Senate seat that stretches from Hallandale Beach and Hollywood to parts of Plantation, Davie and Cooper City. The victory brings an end to a bitter campaign fueled by stealth attacks from two third-party groups.

''I'm going to be a fighter for Broward,'' Sobel said. ``It's been a very close race. I know my opponents have worked very hard. Hopefully, we can put this behind us and work together.''

The campaign to replace Geller was a classic case study on term limits as three former state representatives with long political resumés scrambled for a single Senate seat.

All three spent most of the day Tuesday at Century Village in Pembroke Pines in a last-ditch effort to woo one of the district's most powerful voting blocs.

Gottlieb ultimately won the heavily Jewish condo community, which he represented in the state House. But his win there wasn't enough for him to overcome Sobel.

In the end, the night's biggest wildcard was the Hollywood vote, which went uncounted late into the night.

Both Gottlieb and Sobel served as Hollywood City Commissioners. And some wondered whether the city would put one candidate over the top or whether the two would split the vote, giving Ryan an edge.

Gottlieb's campaign launched a massive grassroots campaign, with the Hollywood lawyer knocking on about 9,500 doors, including many in Hollywood.

And while Gottlieb remained optimistic late into the night, he hadn't erased Sobel's voter margin when the counting ended after midnight Wednesday.

The District 31 campaign was one of South Florida's most expensive state primaries with all three candidates raising well over $250,000.

In the mad-dash final weeks of the campaign, Sobel and Ryan each loaned themselves at least $100,000 for a last-minute fundraising edge. Just days before the primary Sobel had raised roughly $425,000 and Ryan had close to $350,000, while Gottlieb trailed with about $260,000.

Huge sums of money also helped two electioneering communication organizations launch attacks against all three candidates, inundating voters with mailings, television ads and robo-calls in the final days of the campaign.

One pro-Sobel group linked to the Florida Medical Association raised more than $1.5 million, which it used to blast Gottlieb and Ryan and send mailings supporting Sobel.

The group, People for a Better Florida Fund, spent the final days of the campaign flooding the airwaves with one TV ad that accused Gottlieb and Ryan of being ``Tallahassee Insiders.''

Money from the medical industry also poured directly into Sobel's campaign coffers, making up about 40 percent of her contributions.

Another electioneering communication organization run by local political consultant Russ Oster -- called the Intergrity Counts Committee -- targeted Sobel, focusing on a 2006 promise Sobel made to serve out her four-year school board term and a vote earlier that year on a pro-voucher bill.

Democratic party purity became a key campaign talking point -- and a key source of attacks. All three candidates were accused of taking money from Republican donors and supporters of former Gov. Jeb Bush.

And while all three candidates did receive at least $20,000 from Bush supporters and state Republican Party donors, most of that money came from groups and lobbyists that traditionally give to candiates on both sides of the aisle.

But the attacks didn't sway some voters.

``It had no impact, said Herb Statsinger, who voted for Sobel at Hollywood Hills High School. ``I don't think it's appropriate, but it didn't swing my vote.''

Miami Herald staff writer Ely Portillo contributed to this report.

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